Jay's DC Weather Blog

Big Heat Coming

2008-06-03T10:17:00.003-04:00

I havent updated for a while but since we have a big ticket event coming, I thought I would chime in. What is the big ticket item? After a really nice stretch of cool spring temps, Summer is coming hot and heavy and we could hit the mid to upper 90's this weekend as we start a stretch of very hot temps as the pattern shifts. There is also a good chance of severe weather(T-Storms) tonight and tomorrow but this post was to warn you that some very impressive heat is coming. Some models have us close to a 100 this weekend but I dont buy that yet. But 95? Sure.

Hope everyone is enjoying spring

2008-05-01T11:42:00.001-04:00

I really want to do the blog again next winter. Having a kid this winter really limited my time. If there are going to be any good Hurricanes, I will definitely update the board but this is mainly going to be a winter blog cause thats where all the existing weather is. Hopefully, we can get more snow next year.

Rise from the ashes

2008-02-18T15:04:00.003-05:00

I havent blogged in over a month

1) because I am busy at work
2) New kid
3) This winter has been horrendously boring and there is really nothing to blog about.

The pattern of this winter is

1) Warmth and sometimes Extreme Warmth
2) Followed by Cold and Dry
3) The Cold moves out intime for the next storm
4) Storm moves west of us and gives us rain while the midwest gets snow
5) Cold moves back in but no storm
6) Cold moves out intime for next storm that cuts west of us
7) rinse and repeat.

However, we may have a chance late this week/Weekend at a possible winter storm so stay tuned. I will be blogging this week!

Snowy next 5 days

2008-01-17T09:43:00.000-05:00

Folks, if you like snow, your time has come. It appears that the event today is going to outpeform the modeling and even do better than I thought it was capable. A general 3-6 for N and W of DC.

There is one this weekend though that really bears watching. Update later today but one model is giving us an incredible snowstorm. Lets see if the others latch on.

3 chances for snow in the next 10 days

2008-01-16T08:17:00.001-05:00

1st chance is tomorrow. A storm from the gulf of mexico will head up the eastern seaboard. However, the cold air in place will not hold so it will start as snow and then turn to mix before ending. I think however enough snow will fall west of I-95 that we could see a light accumulation before the changeover. Temps will stay in the lower 30's and start to rise overnight as the storm center comes closer. Not a big storm but an interesting event.

2nd chance is Saturday night before the really cold air comes in for sunday. A wave is going to develop and skirt the area. Right now, the potential for light snow is there but we will have to watch this for bigger development.

3rd chance is the storm I am most excited about. I believe the cards are there for a significant storm in the Jan 24-25 time period. Stay tuned!

Severe Cold on the way but still having a hard time with snow

2008-01-13T16:51:00.000-05:00

Well, the storm i was tracking did look good for us for a few days but the models were waffling with it so it was hard to make a good forecast. In the end, the storm that was suppose to develop in the Gulf of Mexico ended not organizing till it hit the mid Atlantic Coast meaning that we would be to far south to get the best dynamics of the storm. This storm as usual looks to be a New England Special. Even with the good track, the surface temps were still marginal. In any case, this storm is not ours.

There is another storm for thursday that might be interesting but again any cold air available will be lost as the storm approaches so at the very best, we could start out as snow and quickly change to rain.

The big news is the cold air coming this weekend. It could be the coldest weekend in many years and shatter records. I will pinpoint how cold it could get starting tomorrow but it could be severe.

As far as snowstorms, we will have our chances in the next 2 weeks but nothing i can put a finger on as far as what time period to look for one.

Winter Storm on the horizon? Stormy and Cold 2nd half of January

2008-01-10T09:15:00.000-05:00

No, I am not pulling the trigger just yet but a storm that I have been tracking for about 10 days is now starting to come into focus. A storm system sunday will develop in the gulf of mexico and work its way up the coast. Models have been really inconsistent in handling the storm so its been really hard to pinpoint whats going to happen. However, I am more confident now that there will be a storm that will head up the coast after developing in the gulf of mexico.

Usually, this is a super track for us but some things are making me wary of pulling the trigger for a snowstorm.

1) No real cold high pressure to our north...there is a weak high pressure though
2) Its been so warm lately that when it does start to cool, the cold air will be marginal at best. There is no arctic air whatsoever
3) Seasonal trends of storms tracking to far N and W
4) Upper features I look for in a snowstorm are not there

so for right now, I am forecasting a winter storm to affect our area. my best guess is that it will be a snowstorm well West and North of DC with a mix in the n and w burbs and mosty rain in DC. I will keep you posted.

More important, i think this will be the start of a pretty exciting 10-15 day period in which cold and stormy conditions could be the rule and not the exception

Where is the blogging? Where is the snow?

2008-01-04T15:52:00.000-05:00

Its been tough to find time to blog. First of all, the weather has been really boring for the Mid Atlantic..plus with a new kid, i just haven't made it a priority but I really do like doing the weather blog so I am going to try to update it at least 3-4 times a week.

You probably all know that warmth is coming but its not the kind of warmth that will last 30 or so days like we have seen in prior years. There is a chance that it could hit 70 in DCA around Jan 8 or so and its going to be very warm for a period of 3-4 days. But I am already seeing signs of going to a colder pattern in time for mid month so this warm while it may be spectacular dosent appear to have any long lasting bite to it.

As far as snow, well its been a no show since our dec 5 clipper. There have been some threats but the storms have all trended NW and we ended up with a near miss but rain. Dont even think about snow till at least mid month. Maybe by then, we will have another shot

Swing and a Miss.....close but no cigar

2007-12-13T11:23:00.000-05:00

Well,

This does not appear to be the good snow maker that it was a few days ago. We do have the arctic high in place which is great but what is killing us is there is phasing of energy too early which allows for a more northerly and westerly movement of the primary low.

The primary low is forecasted to head all the way up to the Ohio valley before transferring the energy to the coast. Once the transfer is complete, the coastal is hugging the coast too much to give us snow and its also transferring to far north due to the movement of the primary low.

So my forecast for DCA is snow to ice to Mostly Rain. No accumulation

n and W of DCA could see an inch or two...prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain and then rain before changing back to snow at the end

Central PA,Central NY could be getting 2-3 feet of snow. This was almost a huge one but not quite enough.

Sorry guys....its still Fall! We have a few more months yet to go

Historic Storm on the way for this weekend??

2007-12-11T14:18:00.000-05:00

Ive done a terrible job with the blog. I haven't updated it. Part of that has been lazy and the other part is having a new baby and not much time for it.

But a special event is going to occur this weekend and the big question is how much snow? Current models show an extreme precipitation event that would rival some of the bigger historic storms. The question is track and if the Cold Air funneling from Canada will stay in place for the duration of the storm.

Whoever stays all snow on the East Coast(Most likely Mountains,Interior Regions) could see snow in feet. For the coastal plain, its going to be a close call but this could really be a storm that we soon don't forget. The impact of the storm will be Saturday into Sunday.

Im 90% confident that there will be a storm. I know have to figure out the details but expect some major travel disruption this weekend. Check back. I will be updating this frequently.

After the storm, it will get mild for a while but this December could go down as a very cold and stormy one when all is said and done

Snowstorm on the way?

2007-11-26T13:25:00.001-05:00

Sorry I haven't updated lately but there has been lots going on and most of it hasn't been weather related. But thats about to change. The models are showing a alot of cold air in Canada ready to be sent down to the United States. The cold air is scheduled to arrive this weekend. To make matters more interesting, a storm system is forecasted to develop in the southern plains and a good deal of moisture may override the large dome of cold air that will be funneling south from Canada. What that could mean for us is a sizable snow to ice to rain event for next week. This is important because its rare that it snows so early in the season and because temps will have to be much below normal to get this event to happen. Normal temps in early December are still around 50 so you have to be radically below normal to get snow this early in the season. Ironically, it has snowed in early Dec 3 times since 2003 all around Dec 5. Very weird but it could happen again.

The models now show a major winter storm. Stay tuned!

Lots of interesting weather on the way

2007-11-13T09:21:00.000-05:00

First of all, the pattern has definitely changed. This morning is our 3rd rain event in the past 5 days after not being able to buy rain for months.

Once today's rain ends, it will warm up for the next couple of days before....more rain and cooler temps come in. A cold front will come through sometime and usher in another 1/2 inch of rain and get us really cold for the weekend.

Then for early next week, their is some signals for a storm cracking the the Tennessee valley that could head towards the Mid Atlantic. At this point, it does look like mainly a rain event, but there could be enough cold air around to make it interesting. I think the ski areas of Maryland and West Virginia and PA could do really well from this storm. The questions will be mainly about the track of the storm and if there is cold pressure in Eastern Canada. The problem is....its still November and it takes nearly perfect conditions to get snow in DC. But for the mountains just outside DC metro...this could be something really worth watching

Thanksgiving is looking pretty cold right now...and overall the end of November looks pretty cold and interesting.

Charged and Ready to go

2007-11-07T10:01:00.000-05:00

Hey guys,

I took a break from this but now I am ready to go. Winter is here and it is by far the most exciting time of the year if your a fan of weather. As you can tell already, cold air is starting to pour in from Canada and today through Sunday, will give us an unseasonable shot of cold and maybe...just maybe a few wet snow flakes on Friday night.

Here is the 6z Nam and it does show some precip overhead with 850mb temps below zero. The problem is its early November and the other crucial layers of the atmosphere may be too warm for snow so I could definitely see some flakes mixing in.

temps during the day will be too warm for snow but marginal at night. I think tomorow night, we see temps dip as low as 26-27 at IAD.

It will warm up next week but maybe another cold shot in 10 days.

Rainy Week

2007-10-22T10:16:00.001-04:00

looking at the latest models, it appears that we are going to have a major rain event this weekend. It could be a long duration event that gives us much needed 2-4 inches. As I said last week, i believe this coming week will be the rainiest week in a long time. We are in desperate need of it. It will also cool down as the week progresses too but we have a few more warm days to deal with.

Dont forget about tomorrows rain too....we could get about an inch from that. This is an important week for the region.

Major Changes....Again

2007-10-18T10:04:00.001-04:00

Well the cool didnt last long as we quickly got back into much above normal temps after a 4 day stretch of normal to below normal weather.

Look at these temps the past few days at IAD. Keep in Mind the average temp for this time period is about 67

Wed=82 15 above normal
Tues=77 10 above normal
Mon=75 8 above normal

The above average temps will continue tor a few more days especially in the wake of a storm heading towards the midwest that might give us a chance for severe weather and and a little possible rain.

But its next week, where we could see some more serious changes in forms of a big rain maker and much colder temps.

I am going on record that next week will be the rainiest week we have seen since winter and its going to get chilly as we head into the last days of October and into November.

There is a a chance that November actually ends up being a cold month after many many days of above normal weather.

Looks like a miss

2007-10-09T11:42:00.000-04:00

Looks like a big storm may brew this weekend but the surface low is going to form too far north to get DC in the ball game. The major effects of this storm will be in New England...especially Northern New England unless something changes. I will keep you updated.

Cooldown yes
big Rainstorm--not likely

MAJOR CHANGES ON THE WAY

2007-10-08T10:34:00.000-04:00

Folks,

No need to rehash the obvious. Its hot and summer has been endless. It dosent rain and the weather has been the same since June pretty much. But Major Changes are coming as soon as Wednesday when a strong cold front rolls through and changes the pattern. By this weekend, we could be looking at a potential Major Noreaster with Heavy Rains and high winds and temps about 30-40 degrees cooler than what they were on Sunday. Stay tuned. Rain Amounts could be termendous if this panned out. We could see some rain mid week as the cold front comes through but it wont be much and nothing compared to the potential of the weekend.

Absurd heat but major relief coming

2007-10-06T11:00:00.000-04:00

this weekend and the first part of next week is going to feature some absurd October heat but a pattern change is coming at least temporarily and a trough will be over the east by next weekend sending us to below normal to normal for about a week.

We have to get through the heat first.

Same old Sh.......

2007-10-02T12:31:00.000-04:00

More warm coming. As long as the trough is in the west, we are going to be getting doused with warmth and it some cases record warmth. It looks like the October 4-8 period will again give us unusually warm weather.

Definite cool down possible as we approach Mid October but Mild will rule until then

More of the same just not AS hot

2007-09-27T08:39:00.000-04:00

Yesteday, IAD broke a record by hitting 93 which is unbelievable for this time of year. What is also unbelievable is the lack of rain we have had all summer. We may get a shower or two tonight but there is nothing in the modeling that gives us any hope for real rain anytime soon. Also, it appear that for this upcoming winter, we are going to have a La Nina which if it gets too strong might really ruin winter here for us. More in that later but dont panic..we still have some hope for a decent winter.

But again, it looks like today is the last really hot day we will have of the year as a cold front does come through tonight and take us back to near normal for the weekend. We are not going to see any below normal temps as long as the pattern is what it is. Trough in the west and a Ridge in the East. We will stay normal to above normal until the pattern shifts and again nothing rainwise for the next week

Not much going on

2007-09-19T11:17:00.000-04:00

No rain to speak off. Temps are very comfortable. It will probably climb to the low 80's towards the end of the week and we could get downright really warm for Sept early next week but that looks to be short lived. I dont like our rain chances for the rest of the week or early into next week. Story of the Summer

Really...there is nothing going on right now worth blogging about.

Its a beautiful day

2007-09-12T10:27:00.000-04:00

The heat and humidity that has been so persistent has taken a hike and has been replaced by much drier,cooler and less humid air. This will be the dominant feature for the next 7 days as today is the first shot of cooler air and then an even more impressive cool shot will occur over the weekend where highs could be in the upper 60' and lows in the 40's in the N and W Burbs.

I am going to start posting more now as we start to head into winter. I will update the blog later with our chances for rain and hurricane potential.

The Hurricane Threat is a bust

2007-09-07T16:51:00.000-04:00

Terrible forecasting by the models and by the people(like me) that use them lol. The usually reliable ECMWF backed off a few days ago and the GFS looks like it might score a coup here as it was never impressed. So very disappointing for alot of us who needed the rain and some fun. The high Shear really took away any chance for the blob to develop. Its not even a depression yet. It may eventually become a tropical storm but the serious threat is definitely gone.

The heat isnt a bust though and it dosent want to go away. The warmth will continue for a good part into next week before some REAL FALL Weather comes and gives us big relief by next weekend maybe.

Sneaky Hurricance to hit the SE Coast?

2007-09-04T12:59:00.000-04:00

While our 2nd Category 5 hurricane in the past few weeks is creating Havoc in Hondurous, the models are now developing an area of low pressure off the SE coast which has it intensifying and actually hitting the SC coast a Cat 2 or 3 Hurricane. The 00z European models shows this nicely as a 1004mb low SW of the SE coastline intensified as it hits land. If this were to happen, we could be talking about major winds and flooding for the East Coast. The European has shown this solution now twice in a row. The GFS has it but its much more of a sheared look and is not threatening in the least. This is something major to watch and could really affect the weekend. Behind the potential event, there could be a impressive rush of cool air for next week but at least for this week until we resolve this situation, it will be warm and dry

Im back...thankfully the heat isnt

2007-08-27T11:00:00.000-04:00

I took a break from the blog from a while...but Im ready to go again. Fall is just around the corner and we actually got some decent rain last week so things are changing just a bit. Saturday was brutally hot and oppressive but I dont see that kind of weather happening anymore this year. Not like that anyway. There maybe one 90 degree day this week but this weekend will actually be really nice tempwise. As far as rain, we had our rainiest week this past week in a long time as most of the week was damp and cloudy. Hurricane Dean ended up being a Category 5 monster but it completely missed the United States.

This week is going to be boring...no rain and temps around normal. No sign of any Cane ready to hit the United States.

Rock me like a Hurricane

2007-08-16T10:43:00.000-04:00

Well the models were right in that a hurricane did form in the Atlantic. The hurricane is now known as Hurricane Dean. Where Dean will go is the big question. Here is the current location of the Cane.

Most models right now have this baby hitting the Yucatan and sparing the United States. Previous models runs had this storm all over the place hitting places ranging from Houston to New Jersey lol.

Ill update you after the 12z model runs but a few of the newer model runs are hinting at the possibility of a more northern turn and possibly being a threat to the Gulf States.

Another Warm Week but Changes may be coming

2007-08-10T09:38:00.000-04:00

So far every day this August has been over 90 degrees as Dulles hit 96 last night. We will probably hit the mid 90's again today but not reach 100 like I thought earlier in the week but after that, we do get a brief relief as we stay in the 80's for the weekend.

Next week is shaping pretty warm again(not as hot as this past week) but there are changes coming and by the end of next week, we could actually be seeing temps below normal(early fall preview) as a trough sets up over the East.

There is also more and more noise in the modeling regarding the possible development of a hurricane. Both the GFS and the European show a hurricane by day 10. Lets see if it develops first and then we can start worrying about the track or whether it will recurve.

DCA at 102 at 2pm

2007-08-08T14:37:00.000-04:00

IAD is still 99--we need to get rid of the clouds. ETA mos has IAD at 104 which would break the all time record but those darn clouds!

We have another chance at 100 on Friday and then we get some much needed relief. Maybe only upper 80's on Saturday!

The Struggle to 100

2007-08-07T08:44:00.000-04:00

The ETA Mos(guidance) is down a bit from what it was yesterday and has forecasted us to hit 98 degrees today but with humidity, the heat index will be in the 105 range. If its going to be this hot, lets go for 100 and break some records. My forecast now is 99 at IAD. Tomorrow, is looking equally as hot as the ETA MOS is 99. I believe we will hit 100 in the next 2 days.

We will probably get some relief over the weekend but still plenty warm. Not oppressive though. the 00z GFS run showed a full latitude trough by 10 day which would take us to below normal for a few days but its too far out to say anymore about it and it dosent have support from the European.

Also, the models are starting to show some "noise" in the tropics. Still no signs of development but we could start seeing some activity in about 10 days. Stay tuned!

Can we hit 100 on Tuesday?

2007-08-06T09:02:00.000-04:00

So far, every day this August has hit at least 90 and its been mostly mid 90's. Tuesday, we have a chance to rock and roll and hit the magic mark of 100.This will definitely be our best chance of the summer. So to recap, today will be upper 90's. Tomorrow, we will probably achieve the rare magic mark of 100 and then Wednesday we will probably low to mid 90's. No major rainstorm as usual but there is always the threat of a thunderstorm or showers in the afternoon. We got a bit of rain overnight but definitely nothing that would even make a dent in our drought.

There is one bit of good news. There is a chance that a trough develops in the East at the start of next weekend which could over us relief from the relentless heat we had the past week or so.

Still nothing in the tropic to get excited about

Could be a long stretch of 90's

2007-08-02T16:31:00.000-04:00

if the models are correct and they are really bringing the heat, we could see a very long stretch of 90 degree days in a row. Next week is looking brutally hot and no rain is in sight. The worst of Summer is coming

Hot,Dry and Boring

2007-08-01T15:23:00.000-04:00

Really nothing earthshattering to tell you. August is here and it looks like the dog days of Summer are upon us. Most days for the forseable future will be in the 90's with a shot at upper 90's next week. This weekend cools a bit but will still be very warm. As far as rain, I hope you enjoyed what we got during the weekend because there is nothing coming. The rain over the weekend was a letdown and much less than what the models were adversting 3-4 days before hand. The drought wins again.

July is over and the average temp will starting going down from now till February so Winter is coming. Lets take a look back at July for IAD and DCA

IAD finished July about 1.6 above normal with a high of 97 on July 9. We had 13 90 degree days which was up from 8 in June. Not too bad. Somehow it rained 1.75 inches which was way below normal(1.82). The weekend storm gave us nearly an inch in about 4 days. We had one day where the high temp was 79! There was no snow

DCA finished July at Normal with a high of 98 on july 9 and 10. DCA featured 14 90 degree days. DCA got alot more rain than IAD with 2.40 inches but still 1.26 below normal. DCA also had an inch from the weekend event. July 29 was the wettest day at DCA with .98 inches

Still no signs of any hurricanes

12z GFS shows Big Rain for DC area

2007-07-25T16:21:00.001-04:00

the new GFS is very bullish on a slow moving rain event that would give us quite a bit of rain over the course of 4 days.

Here would be the total rain amount if it verified through August 2nd. It would make a huge dent into our drought

If this were to happen and its looking like a decent chance, the majority would fall early next week with it starting late in the weekend. I will keep you updated

Rain on the way? Ive heard that before

2007-07-25T09:17:00.000-04:00

its really amazing how the rain keeps dodging us especially in eastern Loudoun County but there are signs that a stalled out front could bring us some substantial rain for the weekend. The Latest gfs runs wants to give us about 2-2.5 inches of rain over the next 5 days with most if falling off and on during the weekend. As we get closer to the potential event, i will keep you updated. However, this is far from a sure lock because we are in a drought and the rain has been finding a way to miss us.

As far as temps go, we havent hit our normal high for about 5 days and although it will get somewhat warmer, im still not impressed with the chances of any real heat wave for at least the next week although we could hit the low 90's thursday and Friday.

Hurricanes? Nope...nothing in sight.

Cool Stretch coming

2007-07-20T10:29:00.000-04:00

The heat is going away for a few days and will be replaced by some nice fresh cool weather from Canada. Highs well below average and cool at night. Its going to feel like early fall rather than middle of Summer.

By this time next week, the heat should be returning and there is "talk" of a big Heat Wave. Well see...im not impressed yet from what the models are showing.

rain? Forgetaboutit. Drought City Baby! In all seriousness, we could see something early next week but Im not putting my hopes in it. Not yet.

Storm Cancel again..the Drought wins again

2007-07-18T09:39:00.001-04:00

well, the storm that appeared to maybe give us a chance for some rain this weekend is heading way north of us so we will be lucky to get a few drops. The good thing is the temps will be much cooler this weekend and into the early part of next week. By Wed, we should start to see another warmup.

Once your in a drought...its really hard to get it to rain.

Possible Storm this Weekend?

2007-07-16T09:46:00.000-04:00

It looks like another mostly dry period with most of the heat occuring in the 1st part. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day as we could hit 95. There is a chance for Thunderstorms pretty much everyday this week but as usual, they will be hit and miss.

The big change could come as we head towards friday with the possibility of some stormy weather and cooler temps. I will update later after the 12z model runs.

Storm Cancel

2007-07-11T08:35:00.000-04:00

My old friend, the European model let me down as it took away the storm that it had for us for tomorrow. From my last Monday post, it had a pretty potent storm developing in the Gulf and coming up the coast but unfortunately, thats not going to happen and i should of waited to see at least one more run before mentioning the possibility.

There is a chance of showers and storms tonight and the weekend will be pleaseant(So there is some relief coming) before the next round of heat arrive early next week. The European does have a little wave to the south of us on Friday that could give us some rain so ill check on that in more detail.

Weekend looks pretty nice!

Heat Wave but relief coming?

2007-07-09T09:05:00.000-04:00

STORM POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY

Searing Heat for the next few days as highs will most likely hit near the 100 mark today and Tuesday. I expect to flirt with and reach 100 degrees both days.

But there is relief in sight....a stormier pattern may be in the offering and we could see a couple of storms towards the end of the week that might give us some much needed rain and temperature relief.

In fact, the latest run of the European has nice storm developing in the Gulf States and heading up the Eastern Seaboard for Thursday and Friday. That could give us the rainy day we have all been looking for. Behind that is another possible storm developing down south that could give us another event during the last part of the weekend. But thats 7 days away. Our best chance appears to be Thursday and Friday.

On Wednesday, we will start seeing temp relief as temps will drop back into a more tolerable range. Stay tuned for updates on the storm!

Im Back and the Heat is far behind

2007-07-06T14:21:00.000-04:00

Been on Vacation but Im back now. I will update soon but it looks like next week is going to be sickly hot.

A Rockin Show today?

2007-06-28T10:42:00.000-04:00

Today could be one of the best days weve had in terms of severe weather. Im certainly not an expert on predicting Severe Weather so this is what the NWS in sterling has to say about it

345
fxus61 klwx 281419
afdlwx


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
1019 am EDT Thursday Jun 28 2007


Synopsis...
high pressure centered off the South Carolina coast will
drift east. A cold front over Michigan will approach the area this
evening allowing more widespread thunderstorm activity to occur.
Showers and thunderstorms will track across the area early Friday
with the passage of the cold front. Cool high pressure will build in
from the Midwest over the weekend and early next week providing the
area with a cooler and less humid airmass.


&&


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
latest radar loop showing convection well west of area but moving
east at a good clip. Wind fields much better
today...unidirectional...0-6km storm motion around 300 degrees at
16kts. Multi-cell storms with damaging winds still looks good for
this afternoon/evening. Freezing levels still quite high...14.8kft.
Mixed layer cape around 1550 and sref forecasting a high probability of
2000+ j/kg favoring our southern and eastern zones late this
afternoon.


Temperatures will be 2-4 degrees cooler than yesterday highs.
Although urban areas may still get close to the 100 degree heat
index.


&&


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/...
if severe storms do develop..blv these would be ongoing around 7 PM
and continue through the evening hours. West/ as much
Theta-E as will be available doubt sunset will
have much effect on the atmosphere ahead of the fnt...so active cnvctn
possible into central Maryland/lower southern Maryland well into evening.
As night progresses blv convective chances lessen near Mason-Dixon
...and have changed precipitation type to
just rain shower across the north.


Unlike prvs two days there will be some wind aloft tda/tngt.
Heavy rain is certainly possible west/ any storms
..but the possiblity of flsh fldg is
lessened as these shouldn't be near-stationary.


Even west/ fnt moving through region still
xpctg a warm overnight - m70s inner cities...l60s far west.


&&

Spectacular Stretch of Weather coming up

2007-06-27T09:32:00.000-04:00

The Peak of the Heat is today as temps should soar into the low to mid 90's. Believe it or not, New England has a better chance of upper 90's than we do as high humidity and partly cloudy skies will prevent us from hitting 100.

Anyway..big changes come tomorrow as a cold front passes. The cold front should trigger showers and Thunderstorms which will end up being our last chance of rain for about a week or so. It will also kill the mini heat wave. We could get some substantial rain out of it(But i also thought we could get some in the past 2 days and that didnt happen.)

The big story will be once the cold front passes, a trough will setup in the east and this is a pretty deep trough. If it was winter, I would be really excited but the bottom line is the trough will keep things cool for this weekend and next week. We will see a gradual increase in heat next week but nothing we cant handle. Worst case scenario is that the temps will normal towards the end of next week. This weekend will be spectacular with some of the most comfortable late June Weather you will ever experience.

Here is the European Model 500mb map for early next week. Notice the big trough in the east and the ridge in the central United States. Perfect scenario for comfortable temps in the middle of summer. Enjoy

Not as Hot as I thought and early peak at July 4

2007-06-25T09:21:00.000-04:00

Well I spent all this time Friday talking about a possible 100 degree day next week...but its not happening. After further looking at the modeling this morning, it appears that there will be too much cloud cover for us to reach 100. The conditions wont be as ripe as I thought. The hot Day of the week still looks it will be Wednesday but 93 is probably the Max we will hit. So cancel the hype...i guess i just overreacted. There is also going to be a good chance for Thunderstoms this week as we might get a decent amount of activity. No day will be a washout but afternoon T-storms are very possible with some being severe in Nature.

It does look like next week and heading into July 4 will be spectacular especially July 1-2! Usually July 4 is a steaming hot but it looks like we will have incredibly comfortable weather. More on that later.

Another shot of Intense Heat for next week

2007-06-22T11:08:00.000-04:00

I like to try to focus the forecast generally a week out from the given date so for this post, I would like to talk about next week. Next week is going to be hot...probably the hottest weather we have had all season. As we head towards July, if the temperature at 5000 feet above sea level is 20 degrees for example, and its Sunny(Not overcast) and its July or Late June, you can add 15 additional degrees to that and forecast your temp on the surface. For Example, The 00z European model run has for next Wednesday at 7pm 850mb(5000 feet) temps at about 20.2. Since its Late June, if you tack on 15 to the 20.2..you get 35.2. 35.2 C at 7pm is 95 degrees. At 7pm! So what is it going to be at 3pm? Well the shorter term more high resolution models can break it down by the hour but I'm guessing Next Wednesday, We will see temps near 100 degrees. Here is a chart courtesy of (www.wxrisk.com) that gives a good general rule of thumb of how to use the 850mb temps to make your forecast.

So next week, its going to be hot again for probably Tuesday,Wed and Thur before it cools down again. I dont see much rain in the next couple of days but in the summer, there is always a chance for a late day shower or TStorm

A little Lull in the Heat

2007-06-20T08:34:00.001-04:00

My last blog entry said that we would be in the 90's for the first part of the week and indeed we were. Yesterday, IAD soared to 95. Today, not so much. We will be in the 80's for the rest of the week during the day time giving us some relief from the intense heat. However, looking at modeling, we could be seeing another big blast of heat at this time next week. Rain? I hoped you enjoyed whatever we had yesterday....were done for a while.

No Question now--Summer is here

2007-06-18T08:36:00.000-04:00

Well, the heat is here and after looking more into the modeling, it dosent appear to be going away anytime soon. There might be a slight reprieve during the weekend but thats iffy too and Ill look at that closer during the week. Highs generally in the 90's especially for the first part of this week. The only really chance of rain i see are Tstorm possibilities on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Still nothing going on in the tropics of any interest for all you Cane Fans.

Enjoy the cool--Heat is on the way

2007-06-14T11:51:00.000-04:00

Interesting week so far...we have gotten a bit more rain than I thought especially with the late day boomers of Tuesday night and Wednesday. We should be done with the rain as we now prepare to tackle some heat after a couple more days of below average temps Starting sunday, the AC's will be in full operation as the first 3-4 days of next week looks hot with highs in the low to mid 90's. I dont think it will be a long heat stretch as we could get back to cooler towards NEXT weekend.

Cool Week

2007-06-11T17:25:00.000-04:00

Looks like a trough in the eastern United States will keep the areas East of the Apps slightly cooler than normal this week. There will be a chance for some showers early this week but nothing really substantial. By Next Monday, we could be looking at another short lived Heat Wave but after that..it looks like a more substantial trough could set in and keep us cooler than normal for through mid June

3pm temps

2007-06-08T16:13:00.001-04:00

The Heat Hype arrives tomorrow

2007-06-07T09:52:00.000-04:00

Ive been hyping this heat now for about a week that is due to set us ablaze. I did say the hot day would be Saturday but I was misreading the dates on the models. Its actually tomorrow.

Here are my forecast highs for Friday for the East Coast

Dulles 99
Washington Reagan 98
Philadelphia 95
Boston 69 lol(this wont affect boston..this is a Mid Atlantic Special). Somebody in the DC/VA/MD/PA region will hit 100.

After Friday, we do cool down a bit for the weekend and next week looks dry and warm but nothing outrageous like its going to be tomorrow. Saturday should be about 15 degrees cooler than Friday as a whole.

No substantial rainstorm in sight

Bad News/Good News

2007-06-05T16:29:00.001-04:00

Bad News: Its going to be really hot Friday and Especially Saturday.
Good News: It will cool down considerably starting on Sunday for a few days

Click to Loop Euro Model Temps

Watch how the severe heat just comes and goes

Severe Heat coming:(

2007-06-04T13:59:00.001-04:00

Well,

I nailed the forecast. The storm I was hinting about right before Memorial day Weekend came to fruition and we got a much needed all day rain event.

So whats next? Severe Heat for a day or two. It appears that my call from last week about severe heat this coming weekend has some legs now. The European model shows some blistering heat for our area for the weekend including a day(saturday) where the temps might hit the mid to upper 90's.

As far as any substantial rain this week? Not a chance. One good thing is that today through Wednesday should be nice and seasonable with low humidity. Enjoy it while you can cause some old school summer roasting is on the way

Some needed Rain on the way and Severe Heat by Next Friday??

2007-06-01T09:59:00.001-04:00

Well, the model that I usually use to forecast(the European) still shows a storm coming up the coast that should bring a decent amount of rain for us early Next week(Sunday night-Monday) time frame. The storm will develop in the Carribean and hit Florida and come up the coast. My call right now is that the storm gives us an inch of rain. Not great but certainly we will take it. Looking ahead, the model is also showing the possibility of Severe Heat by Next weeekend. I hate heat but it looks like this will be a very hot summer. Before the storm arrives, there is the risk of t-storms both today and tomorrow.

Click here to see Euro Model Loop

If the Euro verifies next Friday, we could be looking at temps in the mid to upper 90's

A rainstorm on the way?

2007-05-30T10:42:00.000-04:00

Click Here to Loop 0z European run

courtesy of StormVista(www.stormvista.com) and MDA

Back on May 25, I hinted about the possibility of a wettern pattern for early June. The latest run of the 0z European now shows a storm coming out of the gulf and going up the coast which could provide us quite a storm with substantial rain and wind. This is going to be quite a rain event for the drought stricken SE region. This would be for the June 3-4 period. I will keep you posted

Warm and Dry continues this week

2007-05-29T09:03:00.001-04:00

I really need to work on my summer forecasting because Ive been consistently 1-3 degrees cooler than the actual forecast numbers. It was a steamy weekend as temps soared to 92 at IAD on Saturday which shattered the record for that day. The high on Sunday was 89 and on Monday was 86 so I did okay there. The rain we got was a joke as IAD had .10 for the entire weekend and National got .30.

There is still no rain in our future for at least another week but i see some changes that could get us into a cooler and wetter pattern as the mean trough appears that it will shift east by the first week of June. But for this week, it looks to be very warm especially mid week and dry.

Here is an interesting feature shown by the European model...a tropical storm nearly hitting the east coast but being pushed out to sea at the last minute. Something to keep an eye on

Memorial Day and Beyond

2007-05-25T09:22:00.000-04:00

Well,

Memorial Day weekend is going to feel...well like Memorial Day Weekend. We are going to see an increase in heat and humidity this weekend as temps might soar to as high as the upper 80s. The models are also showing rising dewpoints which means an increase in humidity. Although, there is no substantial soaking rain in the offering, there is a decent chance for thunderstorm action that would give us a break from the humidity.

For Dulles Airport, i suspect highs will reach about 86 on Friday, 87 on Saturday and 88 on Sunday. The best chance for a T-storm will be Saturday afternoon. Right now Memorial Day looks to be cooler than the weekend but plenty cloudy. It will still feel humid

For those of you going to Pa this weekend, the temps will be slightly cooler in the low 80's as a whole

What about a big rainstorm? Well it does appear that we might see a wetter and more tropical pattern starting in early June. Stay Tuned!

Memorial Day Outlook

2007-05-21T15:57:00.000-04:00

First of all, it was an interesting weekend with a bit of rain on Friday and Saturday night but in between we had some really nice weather. As i had foretasted, the rain was not substantial but it did fall Friday was 8 degrees below normal at IAD. Saturday was 2 below and Sunday warmed up nicely to 6 above normal as we hit 82. Its been really dry too as IAD only has .24 inches of Rain for the month!. The normal through today is 2.68 so we are well below normal with no substantial rain still in sight?

How are we looking for Memorial Day Weekend....well a few days ago..i thought the 2nd half would be a bit iffy but now its appearing that the entire weekend will be nice with Sunday being the possible warmest day of the holiday period Especially DC south. So my early forecast is Mostly sunny and pleasant with Sunday now being the warmest day. And Yes...No Rain. At this point

Not much Rain for DC. Memorial Day 1st outlook?

2007-05-18T13:51:00.000-04:00

This big storm will not really affect DC much in terms of rain. Clouds and Cool conditions will be the dominant feature of this event as all the good rains will be well North and East of DC especially in New England. We will get some rain but it will be a joke. Maybe .25 to .50 inches if we are lucky.

Early Next week appears like it will start cooler than normal as the storm is slow to move off. Then it will warm up through the first part of the Memorial Day weekend . The 2nd half of the weekend looks iffy right now as it appears that it might cool down a bit with a frontal passage and give us a chance of rain. Still a long ways off but right now it appears Friday is the warm day of the week before it cools down possibly to temps below normal for the 2nd half of the Memorial Day Weekend.

2007-05-17T12:51:00.000-04:00

Back on Monday, I mentioned that there would be a coastal storm later in the week that would drop temps below normal for the weekend. I also said it would be too far out to give us any meaningful rain, and I may still be right but the models are bringing the storm closer to the coast which could enhance our precip chances for Saturday. Most of our precip will probably come from the closed Upper Level low but the main storm is probably still too far east to give us the drenching Rain. The Beaches and New England could see quite a bit of rain from the storm but for us...i expect just mostly cloudy,cool and showery.

Cool Dry Week Ahead

2007-05-14T10:15:00.000-04:00

image courtesy of StormVista and MDA(www.stormvista.com)

Still no substantial rain in sight. The Thunderstorms on Saturday night were a welcome relief, but overall, its been a very dry May and its likely to continue. You can see from the image really how dry its been this month in the East. There is a chance for a thunderstorm or a few showers Wednesday evening but that should really be the only threat for the week. This week will be mostly on the cool side with the only real chance for heat coming tomorrow when we may hit 83-85 or so. A Ocean storm forming well east of us will move slowly up the coast and keep us cool for the Weekend. As a matter of fact, this weekend is going to feel like Late Fall with temps struggling to get out of the 60's. Tommorow, I will try to hone in on the Memorial Day Weekend but I am leaning warm and dry.

Maybe a touch of rain this weekend

2007-05-11T16:59:00.000-04:00

Models are now showing a good chance for rain here on Saturday night. Again, this is not a major event but the possibility does exists for showers and maybe a T-storm Saturday evening. It will be a quick mover and probably drop less than half an inch of rain...but its something.

Mothers Day looks really nice and early next week will be a bit cooler than normal with a warmup to above normal by Wednesday or Thursday.

Boring!!! Where's Winter?

Dude--Where's the rain?

2007-05-10T09:07:00.000-04:00

Well, it looks like my forecast of desert dry is spot on. While there has been massive flooding in the midwest, we can hardly buy a rain drop. And even though we may get a thunderstorm or some rain showers tonight, its hardly the soaking rain many of us are now looking for. I still dont see a major rain storm in our future but there is a slight chance of a Thunderstorm tonight. NCEP(National Center for Enviromental prediction) has added this great new product that forecasts what the radar may look like in a given time frame. Pretty cool! Watch out Pennsylvania

INCREDIBLE TORNADO VIDEO!! May 4, 2007 - Ellis Co., OK

2007-05-10T04:21:00.001-04:00

Check this out

Footage from Kansas Tornado

2007-05-09T10:52:00.001-04:00

Amazing Footage from the F-5 that ripped apart the town of Greensburg, Kansas

Tornado Devestation

2007-05-08T15:46:00.000-04:00

I will let the picture speak for itself. Click on pic to get a full view

Still a dry pattern

2007-05-08T10:02:00.000-04:00

I am going to have to eat a little crow this morning. I was hyping the possibility of a 90 degree day later in the week but its not looking like its going to happen. This is a good thing actually as the weather will be spectacular. It appears that the highest temp will see in the 4 days will be about 78 degrees. Still see no SUBSTANTIAL Rains in our future

Desert Dry

2007-05-03T11:29:00.000-04:00

Dont look for any substantial rain for the next 7-10 days as a Ridge is going to dominate our weather especially as we head to next week. In addition to the drying, its going to get pretty warm. Still think we have a shot at near 90 for later next week

Summer Time Heat coming Next Week?

2007-05-01T09:42:00.000-04:00

APRIL TEMP ANOMALY CHART
Courtesy of MDA EarthStat and Storm Vista

For the 2nd time in 3 months, the DC area finished a month below average in terms of temperature. So after a long string of warm months, we have reversed the trend somewhat in that category. But the cool weather pattern is coming to an end I believe. We will have one last cool shot for a while as we end the first week of May, but then after that....Look out. Some serious SUMMERTIME Heat will be headed our way towards the end of next week. As a matter of fact, Some of the data has a decent possibility of our first 90 degree day towards the end of next week. I dont see any important rains for us in the near future. We could have a shower or something tonight but most of the important rain will end up being a bit south of us. And next week, its really going to get dry as we start warming up. I will make an update if I see any severe weather threat but its not in the offering right now.

The Map below shows an impressive 500mb setup for warmth towards the end of next week with a trough in the west and a ridge in the East

Nice Weekend but not as Nice as last weekend

2007-04-27T10:43:00.000-04:00

There is a good chance of some thunderstorms today but I dont think anything severe. The damp weather that I promised came a day late but we got some decent rain last night and by the time today ends, it will have end up being a an okay rainmaker but nothing like the kind of rain they got further North. This weekend looks nice but nothing like last week as it will be about 10 degrees cooler and alot more breezy. No rain though

Next week(First week of May) will start off a bit warmer than normal but then end cooler than normal as a trough gets established in the East.

Allergy sufferers? Some relief coming

2007-04-23T11:00:00.000-04:00

First of all, today might get to near 90. NAM (Model output statistics) shows 86-87 at Dulles Airport so we will be flirting with 90 today although I dont think we will hit it but once again we have managed to go from winter to summer and forgetting spring along the way.

For those of you suffering from allergies, there is some relief on the way as a slow moving disturbance will give us on and off rain towards the middle of the week. Not a huge soaker but enough rain to give you guys relief.

Finally, Im a winter weather guy so don't be surprised if this blog isn't updated as much during the summer time. You can say hazy,hot and humid and take care of 80% of the forecast for the summer. I will post when I see extremes in weather like 1) excessive heat 2) Massive Thunderstorm potential 3) Hurricanes

Possibility that begining of May starts of cooler than normal

Ready for a new pattern

2007-04-20T09:08:00.000-04:00

Its over. Winter 06-07 as you know it is going by the wayside. A big warming and drying trend is coming and we will be in a relatively boring weather pattern for the next week or so. Many people wont mind. Right now, if April ended, it would end as one of the coldest of all time. It does appear though that some above average temps are on the way including a chance for a few 80 degree days Sunday and Monday. Enjoy the weekend dont forget to pray for the families/victims of the horrific Tech tragedy.

Give it a week--and the Pattern will start changing

2007-04-16T13:25:00.000-04:00

Look, I love winter weather but even I am getting tired of this. I am ready to move on and get over this winter that dosent seem to want to go away. Heavy Rain fell yesterday but as I mentioned a few days ago, the worst of the noreaster was going to spare the DC area and it did. Dosent it always?. Had the track been more to the south and east as the models were suggesting 5-6 days ago, this could of been truly a historic event as the UL would of closed off sooner and more south. The story of this big noreaster was not snow but historic rain totals and damaging wind.

So...whats next?

Its going to take a while for the system to totally leave us as its going to stall and spin its self out. The storm will continue to give us occasional showers and big wind gusts. It will also keep clouds around till midweek.

However, the atmosphere is changing and all the cold air in Canada is being routed out so by this time next week, we could start seeing the beginning of a major pattern change into a warmer-more April like regime.Its just a matter of time

Stormy Weekend but not as potent as models showed earlier

2007-04-13T14:58:00.000-04:00

Im still excepting a very stormy weekend but the models have backed somewhat off the historical once in a life time April event that it was advertising a few days ago. Make no Mistake, Sunday will be stormy with heavy rain and wind but the change to heavy snow changes close to the metro area that really opened my eyes is now diminishing. The track of the storm has significicantly changed in the modeling from what I saw on Wednesday with a further north and west track. Its possible that there could be another east shift but it looks like most of the important snow from this system will be at the higher elevations. There could be some decent snow in north of Central Pennsylavania.

I will make another update tomorrow as we get closer. The models are still kind of shifting around. Its still an impressive April event but not the crusher it could of been.

Very Powerful Noreaster Likely on the way

2007-04-11T13:37:00.000-04:00

If the GFS model(the American Model) is correct, a very powerful Noreaster will smash the East Coast with Heavy Rain,Snow and Wind. According to the model, this would be one of the strongest storms to hit the east coast since the famous Blizzard of 1993 as its showing a very powerful low pressure center that moves very slowly up the coast(even stalls) and causes an enormous amount of rain and interior snow. This is the predicted snowfall map based on the 12z GFS run and it even gives the Northern Virginia area 2-3 inches of snow after alot of rain.

This storm would start on April 14 and continue through the 16th according to the model and would give us hours of backslash snow. This storm would also cause coastal flooding and beach erosion and dump massive amounts of snow in the mountains of the NorthEast. Something to definitely watch for the end of the weekend into early part of next week. This storm has very strong support from the GFS ensembles and more importantly, the superior European Model.

Stay tuned!

Big Rainstorm on the way

2007-04-10T09:00:00.000-04:00

Very interesting weather lately. Its been colder in early April than it was in Early January and the DC area got their first accumulating snow this late in April since the 1920's over the Easter Weekend. Snows canceled many major league baseball games. Not a great weekend for Al Gore and his Global Warning Disciples.

The temps will continue to be below average over the course of the next week or so although there will be some days where we do hit near normal. But for the most part a damp and cool period is in the offering.

The next area of focus is a big storm in the midwest that will start to affect our area tomorrow and likely give us heavy rain overnight Wednesday. Model amounts show up to 1-2 inches. Just north of us in PA and New England, another bout of heavy snow is expected as April continues to feel like Winter in the NorthEast. With blocking in Greeland, We should stay in this pattern for the next 10 or so days.

White Easter possibilites getting serious(snow tonight?)

2007-04-06T11:11:00.000-04:00

The new models are now printing out more precipitation that will fall over the area over night than what were showing yesterday. On a normal winter day, this amount of precip shown in the map would be a good 3-6 inches but it is April and the grounds have been warm after 2 weeks of warm weather. The area for the best snow is stil , East and South of DC but as you can see, now Dulles and DCA are clearly in the mix to see some possibly moderate snow. How much sticks is hard to say but a whiting to maybe 2 inches would be a good possibility and possibly a bit more.

So my first call

Dulles 1-3
DCA 1-3
BWI 2-4

Well see

White Easter Weekend Possibility

2007-04-05T09:10:00.000-04:00

I havent had a chance to post since Last Friday due being really sick but I wanted to give you guys heads up that a very cold arctic air mass will continue pouring cold air into the eastern Us for the next week or so. Easter will feel more like Christmas usually feels and will probably end up being colder than the past Christmas Holiday. Go Figure

As a matter of fact, there will be several chances of snow in this period but I will focus on the one for tomorrow night into Saturday.

Temps will be plenty cold enough at the upper levels and at the surface for snow to fall as a disturbance approaches from our west. Right now it appears the best chance for moderate snow will be EAST and South of DC where there could be a dusting to maybe half an inch. The more east you head---even towards the beaches is where the best chances of heavier snow will fall. But its April so i don't expect anyone to see more than inch.

You can see in the map that the temps at 5000 feet are -10, which is plenty cold for it to generate snow.

Easter should be sunny but cold(40's)

and then there is another possible storm to watch early-mid week with cold air still in place

Winter just dont want to go away lol

White Easter?

2007-03-30T15:28:00.000-04:00

Its now looking more and more that Easter will feel more like Christmas as one last arctic cold blast will pour cold temps into the Eastern United States starting around April 6. Easter right now looks unusually cold. Will there be a storm also? Stay tuned...some of the long range models hint this.

Major Heat tommorow

2007-03-26T16:56:00.000-04:00

Well, it looks like the warm day of the week will be tommorow as the models show us hitting the 80 plus degree plateau. I think low 80's tomorrow is a good bet.

It still does appear that we will be getting significantly colder during the first week of April

Warm end to March, cold start to April?

2007-03-24T21:41:00.000-04:00

It looks like March will be ending like a lamb....However,April looks like it will start like a Lion as warmth will dominate this week before yet another semi- wintry pattern hits the east coast for the first week of April. The warm day this week appears to be Wednesday as we hit between 75-80 but with a Greenland block possibly setting up, it appears now that the first week of April will feel like the first week of March. Full update on Monday

April Fool?

2007-03-22T16:57:00.000-04:00

Looking at the 10 day European Model makes me wonder if i pulled the trigger to fast on winter being over. I really think the chance of snow is minimal in the Mid Atlantic after April 1 but I did hint a few days ago that something unusual could happen on April 1. The model is now showing a trough over the East that would bring winter back for a bit to the east after pretty warm period starting today. It has other model support too....

I Think its safe to say.....Winter is over

2007-03-21T11:08:00.001-04:00

I really do think winter is now over for the Mid Atlantic. Sure, there is always a chance of a fluke April storm but the calender says its spring and so will the temperatures starting tomorrow. This should be the last below normal average day for a while as tomorrow afternoon should see us hit near 70.

This weekend will feature mostly cloudy days with temps mostly in the 60's but it should be above average at night. I really don't see any more temps below 32 on the horizon. As far as storms,I really don't see any major storms our future despite the mostly cloudy conditions that will prevail over the weekend. There could be some showers friday afternoon and off and on for most of the weekends but certainly not a washout and nothing like last week's nor easter.

Here is a map of the surface sea temp anomalies and you can see the La Nina starting to take hold...below normal waters off the west coast of South America are indicative of a La Nina would could favor a pretty interesting tropical season.

Warmer Weather is on the way

2007-03-19T11:49:00.000-04:00

Ridge in the east with trough in the west should pump up warm air for Thur-Friday

The storm did pretty much what I thought it would do. It was mostly rain initially and then it turned to sleet and then finally snow before ending. I though Eastern Loudoun County(Dulles Airport) would do a little bit better with the snow as it did turn over around 3:00pm and snowed till about 9 but it just didnt accumulate like I thought. Fredrick and Hagerstown were 2 cities that I thought would do pretty well and they ended up doing as well as I forecasted. But i busted a bit too high in the immediate Washington DC area. When I mentioned earlier in the week that we could see a winter storm after temps were up in the 80's...people gave me some really weird remarks. Oh well.

Anyway...the chilly weather will continue for a few more days but a bit of a warmup is in store for Thursday and Friday as temps could soar into the 70's. The Weekend is questionable as a back door cold front could drive temps down a bit with a chance of some soggy weather. I will update the weekend in a few days.

We could have an one last shot of something unusual around April 1

My Final Call--Ping Ping Ping--Big Sleet Storm

2007-03-16T00:09:00.000-04:00

Unfortunately, when the rain turns frozen..it looks like it will be turning to sleet for the majority of the storm. There will be a period of heavy snow especially West and NW of town.

my final call of snow/sleet

Dulles 4-6
DCA 1 inch or less
Mclean 1-3
Fredrick 5-7 inches
Hagerstown 8-12 inches

its going to be an extremely wet storm with alot of rain then sleet and snow. A nasty storm and a shame that its not January.

Winter Storm Watch out for the N &W Burbs

2007-03-15T17:06:00.000-04:00

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2007

MDZ003>006-501-502-VAZ027-028-030-031-042-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-
160400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.070316T1500Z-070317T0400Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-SHENANDOAH-
FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-
JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-
EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...BAYARD...PETERSBURG...EMORYVILLE...
HARTMANSVILLE...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY
359 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL USHER
IN DRASTICALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.

AS THE LOW NEARS...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ALL DAY FRIDAY. NEAR FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...MIXED RAIN SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
EARLY 7 PM TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS WINTRY
MIX WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT TIMES MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN COULD OCCUR. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET
FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT TIMES MORE SNOW THAN RAIN WILL OCCUR.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST...PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL SNOW DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO THE EXACT AMOUNT AND TYPE OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE WATCH AREA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

My 1st Stab

2007-03-15T09:42:00.000-04:00

I have e never forecasted snow this late in the season and the DC areas has not had a big accumulation of snow this late since March of 1993 but that was from the Super Storm Blizzard of 93. We did have a late snow in march 2003 and it did stick while it was snowing heavy in the morning. Dulles did get 2 inches on March 30 from only .69 qpf and temps were a bit warmer than they will be tomorrow during the height of the storm.

With 2-3 inches of QPF forecasted--here is my official forecast on this very wet and major winter storm for the northeast

DCA 1 inch
Dulles 3-5 inches
BWI 1-2 inches
HGR 4-6 inches

a general 3-5 inches for the NW suburbs---the further east--the more sleet rain mix. I do think DC will see a general period of heavy snow that may have a hard time sticking.

If this storm was occurring a few weeks earlier...i would be thinking a foot or more in the NW areas. We really need to storm to be a bit more east than progged. I like the setup of the high pressure and the fact that fresh cold air will be coming in.

Should be interesting but without much history to look at..this is definitely a wild card storm.

Allentown,PA should do very well!

New Model runs are Wetter-Colder-Snowier??

2007-03-14T12:04:00.000-04:00

The new model runs are out and they are trending colder and wetter. It appears now likely that the DC area will see some snow Friday night and Saturday and possibly Heavy snow for a time. Again, the best bets for accumulation are N and W of town but now I can see DCA getting some accumulation too. The temps will be marginal but a heavy wet snow event is certainly within realm. The Northeast from PA to New England look to get pounded.

Ill update the blog often as we see a dramatic turn-around.

A Shocking Turnaround?

2007-03-14T09:15:00.000-04:00

Does going from 75-80 today to possibly some moderate snow on Friday night count? The blowtorch that was called for last week is actually more impressive than I thought but that memory will quickly be erased by Friday as cold air pours from Canada thanks to a High Pressure center that is setup beautifully to support Cold Air Damning. While thats happen, a storm will develop and head up the coast and will likely change the rain(the storm will start off as rain) into a period of wet snow. The best bets for any accumulation are N &W of DC and I expect places like Allentown,PA...the suburbs of NYC and Boston to have a significant accumulation of snow. I will post updates on the blog but I wanted to give you heads up that Winter will attack one more time and probably the last time. Next weekend...the Weekend of March 24-25 could be another impressive blowtorch.

by the way...did you hear about the expedition to bring attention to global warming that got canceled due to frost bite?

http://www.startribune.com/462/story/1048709.html

Cold Storm this weekend?

2007-03-13T12:33:00.000-04:00

After a very warm stretch coming up in which some areas could see readings between 75-80...winter comes roaring back and it now appears that a cold storm will approach this weekend that starts off as rain and may switch to snow.

Too early to talk about it now but the models are now indicating a very wet event for DC and the Mid Atlantic for this weekend with temps close enough to make things interesting

Is it possible?

2007-03-12T21:54:00.000-04:00

A week after a 1-2 inch snowfall and temps in the lower 30's....its entirely possible that we could see an 80 degree day on Wednesday now as the models are really showing the heat pumping...

March 14--could break a heat record. I am now forecasting a 75-80 degree day for the DC area

Roller Coaster Weather for the next 2 weeks

2007-03-12T09:37:00.000-04:00

It looks like we will be having one more shot of winter cold this weekend after a very warm stretch of weather this week. Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the best days to call in sick as we should approach and probably exceed the 70 degree mark.. With March being a transition month, it should be no surprise that we can get snow a few days ago...have a mild weekend, hit 70 during midweek and then back to cold for next Weekend. The cold this weekend will be nothing like we had last week and we should be able to handle it with relative ease. I suspect most of next week will average below normal but towards the 22nd or 23rd of March, we should start rebounding again and Winter as we know it will finally come to an end at least in the Mid Atlantic. There could be one last snow threat early next week but I wont touch on that for a few days.

Also, the best chance for any rain this week will come on Friday as we change from a warm air mass to a colder one.

To the people who get my weather emails, I will probably stop sending them out except for instances where really severe weather is immiment. All the information you will need will be on the blog and I would just bookmark the site and check it regularly. It will be updated often. Feel free to pass the link to your friends as the blog will continue to be DC centric but also touch on Mid Atlantic in general especially in terms of long range and pattern changes. Feel free to email me with any questions you have.

Spring forward but Winter will be back one more time

2007-03-08T11:59:00.000-05:00

The storm yesterday behaved as I thought. There was a general 1-2 inches with Hagerstown being the winner with 4 inches. But as I promised you....Warmer Days are coming. As Ive been alluding for the past few days, the very chilly weather of this first week will be replaced by Mild Weather next week. There could be a day next week...like Wednesday where DC flirts with 70. Right now Next Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the warmest day although early in the week will feel great compared to what we have been through. But alas, the cold will return by the Start of Next weekend. This weekend while mild appears to be cloudy. The real spring weather will begin next week.

Also, something to keep in mind is that there we have gone from a El Nino to a La Nina. La Nina is the opposite of El Nino where the waters in the equatorial Pacific are colder than normal. Who cares right? Well...a La Nina regime favors a very active hurricane season. Last Season, El nino pretty much shut down Hurricanes but this summer might be the opposite.Also, If the La Nina is moderate to strong by the time we head into next winter, we can kiss winter goodbye. Its going to stink. But if it weakens and we have a weak La Nina, the winter will be alot more interesting.

No Changes--snow on the way

2007-03-06T12:31:00.000-05:00

Not a big deal but a general 1-3 inches will be falling during the day tomorrow. I suspect most areas will be in the 2 inch area. For this snowless winter, i guess some people might see this as a decent storm. There could be a period where we see some moderate snow. Temps will remain cold for the rest of the week. I told you this would be a cold week.

by the way...i put a hits counter in early Feb on the blog and this page has 4000 plus hits so somebody besides the email list is reading it lol

What about warm air? Next week should be warm with a few days hitting the mid 60s but I really dont think its going to last. We could start getting cold again in about 10 days after the warm up.

Snow Spurt Possible Wednesday. Record Cold tomorrow??

2007-03-05T10:14:00.000-05:00

A reinforcing shot of cold air and icy winds will be arriving later this afternoon setting the stage for an abnormally cold stretch for early March. In fact, we may not be above freezing tomorrow and could set a record as there is a chance we stay in the 20's during the day!. Then on Wednesday afternoon, a clipper from Alberta will be heading our way and we could see an inch or two of snow. I will update tomorrow on the potential snow

It will be warmer next week. Trust me

One more cold shot then Major Warming

2007-03-02T13:37:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow, a cold front comes through in the afternoon and we go back to a colder than normal regime after today's warm day. I still believe the first week of March especially early next week will end up being well below normal. Tuesday looks to be the coldest day of the week with temps in the 30's for DC and 20's in New England during the daytime! Keep in mind that the normal temps now in the Mid Atlantic are between 48-52 so much below normal isnt as cold in March as it is in January. But Starting around March 8, the cold will be forgotten and we will be into a much warmer air mass with a pattern change similar to what we had back in the early winter. The mild should be a dominant player for about 10 days but there is a possibility of going back to one last wintry pattern during the last week 10 days of March.

bottom line: Cold through March 7 and a major warmup after that for at least 10 days. I wont comment on any storms till next week. Enjoy

Big Rain Tonight

2007-03-01T17:28:00.000-05:00

Big Rain tonight. Heavy with chance of severe T-storms. 1-2 inches of rain for the the Mid Atlantic.

After rain event passes, it does cool down for the weekend and for most of next week but we starting warming up big time by next weekend.

Rain then more cold weather

2007-02-27T16:57:00.000-05:00

Well, the storm for once actually outdid what I thought it would do and dropped a general 4-8 inches in the DC metro area. I mentioned on Saturday that were were in the bullseye and would probably see 3-4 inches before a changeover but we actually got a bit more. The local TV mets were clueless as nobody called for snow despite the models trending colder at the upper levels. Oh well.....But i really didnt think that DC south and east would get as much as they did.

Next event is Rain and it will be in the Thursday-Friday morning time frame. Temps will be in the 50's. Big snow and Ice storm for Interior New England. A skiers delight. After the storm passes, its going to get pretty cold for a few days. Right now, the first week of March looks like it will be well below normal. We should see a moderation in the 2nd week of March but after that...i do think it goes cold again. We may have seen our last snowstorm at least in the DC-philly area...but Im not ready to concede 100%. This maybe a winter that doesnt want to let go.

Final Storm update

2007-02-24T22:49:00.000-05:00

Looks like the Northern Virgina-Maryland-DC area is in the bullseye with regards to how much moisture is going to fall. This appears to be a very wet system with up to 1.5 inches of moisture. With the models now trending a bit colder in the upper levels, we could see more snow than I thought. If your 20-25 miles W and N of DC, there is a good chance you could see 3-4 inches of snow before changing to ice. DC could see an inch or so...then some ice and then some rain. Could be some real problems W and N of DC. Northern Maryland/Central Maryland could see 6 inches plus of snow.

Significant Winter Storm for tommorow

2007-02-24T12:58:00.000-05:00

While the Tv mets were calling for a warm weekend, i started honking Wednesday for a possible storm for Sunday. Looks like the storm is going to win out. A moist system with enough cold air to cause problems will be the focus starting early sunday morning and continuing throughout the day. Look for snow to start and accumulate maybe 1-2 inches before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. Areas N and W of DC will stay all frozen while DC south and east goes from Ice to rain. The more north you are like Northern Maryland,Central PA,Allentown...the more snow you will get. This storm wont be as bad as the Valentines Day storm because there is less moisture and more importantly..instead of temps being 21 with sleet, it will be 31. But if we get alot of freezing rain, there could be a significant accumulation on trees and power lines and it will cause problem. The storm should be out of here by Monday Morning. The really hard part to forecast is the upper level temps. If they stay cold enough...we could see more snow and less ice which would be the best case scenario. If i have any updates, Ill update tonight. Another Big Winter storm could approach in early March. Stay Tuned!

I will update on saturday regarding the Winter Storm

2007-02-23T13:54:00.000-05:00

I dont have any real changes. The models indicate that some form of frozen precip will be falling on Sunday morning but I wont be able to pinpoint till tomorrow. The National Weather Service is thinking about issuing a Winter Storm Watch but its going to be a very close call to see how much snow we get in relation to ice and rain.

Update tomorrow.