Nice Weekend but not as Nice as last weekend

There is a good chance of some thunderstorms today but I dont think anything severe. The damp weather that I promised came a day late but we got some decent rain last night and by the time today ends, it will have end up being a an okay rainmaker but nothing like the kind of rain they got further North. This weekend looks nice but nothing like last week as it will be about 10 degrees cooler and alot more breezy. No rain though

Next week(First week of May) will start off a bit warmer than normal but then end cooler than normal as a trough gets established in the East.

Allergy sufferers? Some relief coming

First of all, today might get to near 90. NAM (Model output statistics) shows 86-87 at Dulles Airport so we will be flirting with 90 today although I dont think we will hit it but once again we have managed to go from winter to summer and forgetting spring along the way.

For those of you suffering from allergies, there is some relief on the way as a slow moving disturbance will give us on and off rain towards the middle of the week. Not a huge soaker but enough rain to give you guys relief.

Finally, Im a winter weather guy so don't be surprised if this blog isn't updated as much during the summer time. You can say hazy,hot and humid and take care of 80% of the forecast for the summer. I will post when I see extremes in weather like 1) excessive heat 2) Massive Thunderstorm potential 3) Hurricanes

Possibility that begining of May starts of cooler than normal

Ready for a new pattern

Its over. Winter 06-07 as you know it is going by the wayside. A big warming and drying trend is coming and we will be in a relatively boring weather pattern for the next week or so. Many people wont mind. Right now, if April ended, it would end as one of the coldest of all time. It does appear though that some above average temps are on the way including a chance for a few 80 degree days Sunday and Monday. Enjoy the weekend dont forget to pray for the families/victims of the horrific Tech tragedy.

Give it a week--and the Pattern will start changing

Look, I love winter weather but even I am getting tired of this. I am ready to move on and get over this winter that dosent seem to want to go away. Heavy Rain fell yesterday but as I mentioned a few days ago, the worst of the noreaster was going to spare the DC area and it did. Dosent it always?. Had the track been more to the south and east as the models were suggesting 5-6 days ago, this could of been truly a historic event as the UL would of closed off sooner and more south. The story of this big noreaster was not snow but historic rain totals and damaging wind.

So...whats next?

Its going to take a while for the system to totally leave us as its going to stall and spin its self out. The storm will continue to give us occasional showers and big wind gusts. It will also keep clouds around till midweek.

However, the atmosphere is changing and all the cold air in Canada is being routed out so by this time next week, we could start seeing the beginning of a major pattern change into a warmer-more April like regime.Its just a matter of time

Stormy Weekend but not as potent as models showed earlier

Im still excepting a very stormy weekend but the models have backed somewhat off the historical once in a life time April event that it was advertising a few days ago. Make no Mistake, Sunday will be stormy with heavy rain and wind but the change to heavy snow changes close to the metro area that really opened my eyes is now diminishing. The track of the storm has significicantly changed in the modeling from what I saw on Wednesday with a further north and west track. Its possible that there could be another east shift but it looks like most of the important snow from this system will be at the higher elevations. There could be some decent snow in north of Central Pennsylavania.

I will make another update tomorrow as we get closer. The models are still kind of shifting around. Its still an impressive April event but not the crusher it could of been.

Very Powerful Noreaster Likely on the way

If the GFS model(the American Model) is correct, a very powerful Noreaster will smash the East Coast with Heavy Rain,Snow and Wind. According to the model, this would be one of the strongest storms to hit the east coast since the famous Blizzard of 1993 as its showing a very powerful low pressure center that moves very slowly up the coast(even stalls) and causes an enormous amount of rain and interior snow. This is the predicted snowfall map based on the 12z GFS run and it even gives the Northern Virginia area 2-3 inches of snow after alot of rain.

This storm would start on April 14 and continue through the 16th according to the model and would give us hours of backslash snow. This storm would also cause coastal flooding and beach erosion and dump massive amounts of snow in the mountains of the NorthEast. Something to definitely watch for the end of the weekend into early part of next week. This storm has very strong support from the GFS ensembles and more importantly, the superior European Model.

Stay tuned!

Big Rainstorm on the way

Very interesting weather lately. Its been colder in early April than it was in Early January and the DC area got their first accumulating snow this late in April since the 1920's over the Easter Weekend. Snows canceled many major league baseball games. Not a great weekend for Al Gore and his Global Warning Disciples.

The temps will continue to be below average over the course of the next week or so although there will be some days where we do hit near normal. But for the most part a damp and cool period is in the offering.

The next area of focus is a big storm in the midwest that will start to affect our area tomorrow and likely give us heavy rain overnight Wednesday. Model amounts show up to 1-2 inches. Just north of us in PA and New England, another bout of heavy snow is expected as April continues to feel like Winter in the NorthEast. With blocking in Greeland, We should stay in this pattern for the next 10 or so days.

White Easter possibilites getting serious(snow tonight?)

The new models are now printing out more precipitation that will fall over the area over night than what were showing yesterday. On a normal winter day, this amount of precip shown in the map would be a good 3-6 inches but it is April and the grounds have been warm after 2 weeks of warm weather. The area for the best snow is stil , East and South of DC but as you can see, now Dulles and DCA are clearly in the mix to see some possibly moderate snow. How much sticks is hard to say but a whiting to maybe 2 inches would be a good possibility and possibly a bit more.

So my first call

Dulles 1-3
DCA 1-3
BWI 2-4

Well see

White Easter Weekend Possibility

I havent had a chance to post since Last Friday due being really sick but I wanted to give you guys heads up that a very cold arctic air mass will continue pouring cold air into the eastern Us for the next week or so. Easter will feel more like Christmas usually feels and will probably end up being colder than the past Christmas Holiday. Go Figure

As a matter of fact, there will be several chances of snow in this period but I will focus on the one for tomorrow night into Saturday.

Temps will be plenty cold enough at the upper levels and at the surface for snow to fall as a disturbance approaches from our west. Right now it appears the best chance for moderate snow will be EAST and South of DC where there could be a dusting to maybe half an inch. The more east you head---even towards the beaches is where the best chances of heavier snow will fall. But its April so i don't expect anyone to see more than inch.

You can see in the map that the temps at 5000 feet are -10, which is plenty cold for it to generate snow.






Easter should be sunny but cold(40's)

and then there is another possible storm to watch early-mid week with cold air still in place

Winter just dont want to go away lol

White Easter?

Its now looking more and more that Easter will feel more like Christmas as one last arctic cold blast will pour cold temps into the Eastern United States starting around April 6. Easter right now looks unusually cold. Will there be a storm also? Stay tuned...some of the long range models hint this.

Major Heat tommorow

Well, it looks like the warm day of the week will be tommorow as the models show us hitting the 80 plus degree plateau. I think low 80's tomorrow is a good bet.

It still does appear that we will be getting significantly colder during the first week of April

Warm end to March, cold start to April?

It looks like March will be ending like a lamb....However,April looks like it will start like a Lion as warmth will dominate this week before yet another semi- wintry pattern hits the east coast for the first week of April. The warm day this week appears to be Wednesday as we hit between 75-80 but with a Greenland block possibly setting up, it appears now that the first week of April will feel like the first week of March. Full update on Monday

April Fool?

Looking at the 10 day European Model makes me wonder if i pulled the trigger to fast on winter being over. I really think the chance of snow is minimal in the Mid Atlantic after April 1 but I did hint a few days ago that something unusual could happen on April 1. The model is now showing a trough over the East that would bring winter back for a bit to the east after pretty warm period starting today. It has other model support too....

I Think its safe to say.....Winter is over

I really do think winter is now over for the Mid Atlantic. Sure, there is always a chance of a fluke April storm but the calender says its spring and so will the temperatures starting tomorrow. This should be the last below normal average day for a while as tomorrow afternoon should see us hit near 70.

This weekend will feature mostly cloudy days with temps mostly in the 60's but it should be above average at night. I really don't see any more temps below 32 on the horizon. As far as storms,I really don't see any major storms our future despite the mostly cloudy conditions that will prevail over the weekend. There could be some showers friday afternoon and off and on for most of the weekends but certainly not a washout and nothing like last week's nor easter.

Here is a map of the surface sea temp anomalies and you can see the La Nina starting to take hold...below normal waters off the west coast of South America are indicative of a La Nina would could favor a pretty interesting tropical season.

Warmer Weather is on the way

Ridge in the east with trough in the west should pump up warm air for Thur-Friday

The storm did pretty much what I thought it would do. It was mostly rain initially and then it turned to sleet and then finally snow before ending. I though Eastern Loudoun County(Dulles Airport) would do a little bit better with the snow as it did turn over around 3:00pm and snowed till about 9 but it just didnt accumulate like I thought. Fredrick and Hagerstown were 2 cities that I thought would do pretty well and they ended up doing as well as I forecasted. But i busted a bit too high in the immediate Washington DC area. When I mentioned earlier in the week that we could see a winter storm after temps were up in the 80's...people gave me some really weird remarks. Oh well.

Anyway...the chilly weather will continue for a few more days but a bit of a warmup is in store for Thursday and Friday as temps could soar into the 70's. The Weekend is questionable as a back door cold front could drive temps down a bit with a chance of some soggy weather. I will update the weekend in a few days.

We could have an one last shot of something unusual around April 1

My Final Call--Ping Ping Ping--Big Sleet Storm

Unfortunately, when the rain turns frozen..it looks like it will be turning to sleet for the majority of the storm. There will be a period of heavy snow especially West and NW of town.

my final call of snow/sleet

Dulles 4-6
DCA 1 inch or less
Mclean 1-3
Fredrick 5-7 inches
Hagerstown 8-12 inches

its going to be an extremely wet storm with alot of rain then sleet and snow. A nasty storm and a shame that its not January.

Winter Storm Watch out for the N &W Burbs

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2007

MDZ003>006-501-502-VAZ027-028-030-031-042-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-
160400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.070316T1500Z-070317T0400Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-SHENANDOAH-
FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-
JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-
EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...BAYARD...PETERSBURG...EMORYVILLE...
HARTMANSVILLE...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY
359 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL USHER
IN DRASTICALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.

AS THE LOW NEARS...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ALL DAY FRIDAY. NEAR FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...MIXED RAIN SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
EARLY 7 PM TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS WINTRY
MIX WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT TIMES MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN COULD OCCUR. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET
FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT TIMES MORE SNOW THAN RAIN WILL OCCUR.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST...PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL SNOW DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO THE EXACT AMOUNT AND TYPE OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE WATCH AREA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

My 1st Stab

I have e never forecasted snow this late in the season and the DC areas has not had a big accumulation of snow this late since March of 1993 but that was from the Super Storm Blizzard of 93. We did have a late snow in march 2003 and it did stick while it was snowing heavy in the morning. Dulles did get 2 inches on March 30 from only .69 qpf and temps were a bit warmer than they will be tomorrow during the height of the storm.

With 2-3 inches of QPF forecasted--here is my official forecast on this very wet and major winter storm for the northeast

DCA 1 inch
Dulles 3-5 inches
BWI 1-2 inches
HGR 4-6 inches

a general 3-5 inches for the NW suburbs---the further east--the more sleet rain mix. I do think DC will see a general period of heavy snow that may have a hard time sticking.

If this storm was occurring a few weeks earlier...i would be thinking a foot or more in the NW areas. We really need to storm to be a bit more east than progged. I like the setup of the high pressure and the fact that fresh cold air will be coming in.

Should be interesting but without much history to look at..this is definitely a wild card storm.

Allentown,PA should do very well!

New Model runs are Wetter-Colder-Snowier??

The new model runs are out and they are trending colder and wetter. It appears now likely that the DC area will see some snow Friday night and Saturday and possibly Heavy snow for a time. Again, the best bets for accumulation are N and W of town but now I can see DCA getting some accumulation too. The temps will be marginal but a heavy wet snow event is certainly within realm. The Northeast from PA to New England look to get pounded.

Ill update the blog often as we see a dramatic turn-around.

A Shocking Turnaround?

Does going from 75-80 today to possibly some moderate snow on Friday night count? The blowtorch that was called for last week is actually more impressive than I thought but that memory will quickly be erased by Friday as cold air pours from Canada thanks to a High Pressure center that is setup beautifully to support Cold Air Damning. While thats happen, a storm will develop and head up the coast and will likely change the rain(the storm will start off as rain) into a period of wet snow. The best bets for any accumulation are N &W of DC and I expect places like Allentown,PA...the suburbs of NYC and Boston to have a significant accumulation of snow. I will post updates on the blog but I wanted to give you heads up that Winter will attack one more time and probably the last time. Next weekend...the Weekend of March 24-25 could be another impressive blowtorch.

by the way...did you hear about the expedition to bring attention to global warming that got canceled due to frost bite?

http://www.startribune.com/462/story/1048709.html