Winter Storm on the horizon? Stormy and Cold 2nd half of January

No, I am not pulling the trigger just yet but a storm that I have been tracking for about 10 days is now starting to come into focus. A storm system sunday will develop in the gulf of mexico and work its way up the coast. Models have been really inconsistent in handling the storm so its been really hard to pinpoint whats going to happen. However, I am more confident now that there will be a storm that will head up the coast after developing in the gulf of mexico.

Usually, this is a super track for us but some things are making me wary of pulling the trigger for a snowstorm.

1) No real cold high pressure to our north...there is a weak high pressure though
2) Its been so warm lately that when it does start to cool, the cold air will be marginal at best. There is no arctic air whatsoever
3) Seasonal trends of storms tracking to far N and W
4) Upper features I look for in a snowstorm are not there

so for right now, I am forecasting a winter storm to affect our area. my best guess is that it will be a snowstorm well West and North of DC with a mix in the n and w burbs and mosty rain in DC. I will keep you posted.

More important, i think this will be the start of a pretty exciting 10-15 day period in which cold and stormy conditions could be the rule and not the exception