Im back...thankfully the heat isnt

I took a break from the blog from a while...but Im ready to go again. Fall is just around the corner and we actually got some decent rain last week so things are changing just a bit. Saturday was brutally hot and oppressive but I dont see that kind of weather happening anymore this year. Not like that anyway. There maybe one 90 degree day this week but this weekend will actually be really nice tempwise. As far as rain, we had our rainiest week this past week in a long time as most of the week was damp and cloudy. Hurricane Dean ended up being a Category 5 monster but it completely missed the United States.

This week is going to be boring...no rain and temps around normal. No sign of any Cane ready to hit the United States.

Rock me like a Hurricane

Well the models were right in that a hurricane did form in the Atlantic. The hurricane is now known as Hurricane Dean. Where Dean will go is the big question. Here is the current location of the Cane.

Most models right now have this baby hitting the Yucatan and sparing the United States. Previous models runs had this storm all over the place hitting places ranging from Houston to New Jersey lol.

Ill update you after the 12z model runs but a few of the newer model runs are hinting at the possibility of a more northern turn and possibly being a threat to the Gulf States.

Another Warm Week but Changes may be coming

So far every day this August has been over 90 degrees as Dulles hit 96 last night. We will probably hit the mid 90's again today but not reach 100 like I thought earlier in the week but after that, we do get a brief relief as we stay in the 80's for the weekend.

Next week is shaping pretty warm again(not as hot as this past week) but there are changes coming and by the end of next week, we could actually be seeing temps below normal(early fall preview) as a trough sets up over the East.

There is also more and more noise in the modeling regarding the possible development of a hurricane. Both the GFS and the European show a hurricane by day 10. Lets see if it develops first and then we can start worrying about the track or whether it will recurve.

DCA at 102 at 2pm

IAD is still 99--we need to get rid of the clouds. ETA mos has IAD at 104 which would break the all time record but those darn clouds!

We have another chance at 100 on Friday and then we get some much needed relief. Maybe only upper 80's on Saturday!

The Struggle to 100

The ETA Mos(guidance) is down a bit from what it was yesterday and has forecasted us to hit 98 degrees today but with humidity, the heat index will be in the 105 range. If its going to be this hot, lets go for 100 and break some records. My forecast now is 99 at IAD. Tomorrow, is looking equally as hot as the ETA MOS is 99. I believe we will hit 100 in the next 2 days.

We will probably get some relief over the weekend but still plenty warm. Not oppressive though. the 00z GFS run showed a full latitude trough by 10 day which would take us to below normal for a few days but its too far out to say anymore about it and it dosent have support from the European.

Also, the models are starting to show some "noise" in the tropics. Still no signs of development but we could start seeing some activity in about 10 days. Stay tuned!

Can we hit 100 on Tuesday?

So far, every day this August has hit at least 90 and its been mostly mid 90's. Tuesday, we have a chance to rock and roll and hit the magic mark of 100.This will definitely be our best chance of the summer. So to recap, today will be upper 90's. Tomorrow, we will probably achieve the rare magic mark of 100 and then Wednesday we will probably low to mid 90's. No major rainstorm as usual but there is always the threat of a thunderstorm or showers in the afternoon. We got a bit of rain overnight but definitely nothing that would even make a dent in our drought.

There is one bit of good news. There is a chance that a trough develops in the East at the start of next weekend which could over us relief from the relentless heat we had the past week or so.

Still nothing in the tropic to get excited about

Could be a long stretch of 90's

if the models are correct and they are really bringing the heat, we could see a very long stretch of 90 degree days in a row. Next week is looking brutally hot and no rain is in sight. The worst of Summer is coming

Hot,Dry and Boring

Really nothing earthshattering to tell you. August is here and it looks like the dog days of Summer are upon us. Most days for the forseable future will be in the 90's with a shot at upper 90's next week. This weekend cools a bit but will still be very warm. As far as rain, I hope you enjoyed what we got during the weekend because there is nothing coming. The rain over the weekend was a letdown and much less than what the models were adversting 3-4 days before hand. The drought wins again.

July is over and the average temp will starting going down from now till February so Winter is coming. Lets take a look back at July for IAD and DCA

IAD finished July about 1.6 above normal with a high of 97 on July 9. We had 13 90 degree days which was up from 8 in June. Not too bad. Somehow it rained 1.75 inches which was way below normal(1.82). The weekend storm gave us nearly an inch in about 4 days. We had one day where the high temp was 79! There was no snow

DCA finished July at Normal with a high of 98 on july 9 and 10. DCA featured 14 90 degree days. DCA got alot more rain than IAD with 2.40 inches but still 1.26 below normal. DCA also had an inch from the weekend event. July 29 was the wettest day at DCA with .98 inches


Still no signs of any hurricanes

12z GFS shows Big Rain for DC area

the new GFS is very bullish on a slow moving rain event that would give us quite a bit of rain over the course of 4 days.

Here would be the total rain amount if it verified through August 2nd. It would make a huge dent into our drought

If this were to happen and its looking like a decent chance, the majority would fall early next week with it starting late in the weekend. I will keep you updated

Rain on the way? Ive heard that before

its really amazing how the rain keeps dodging us especially in eastern Loudoun County but there are signs that a stalled out front could bring us some substantial rain for the weekend. The Latest gfs runs wants to give us about 2-2.5 inches of rain over the next 5 days with most if falling off and on during the weekend. As we get closer to the potential event, i will keep you updated. However, this is far from a sure lock because we are in a drought and the rain has been finding a way to miss us.

As far as temps go, we havent hit our normal high for about 5 days and although it will get somewhat warmer, im still not impressed with the chances of any real heat wave for at least the next week although we could hit the low 90's thursday and Friday.

Hurricanes? Nope...nothing in sight.

Cool Stretch coming

The heat is going away for a few days and will be replaced by some nice fresh cool weather from Canada. Highs well below average and cool at night. Its going to feel like early fall rather than middle of Summer.

By this time next week, the heat should be returning and there is "talk" of a big Heat Wave. Well see...im not impressed yet from what the models are showing.

rain? Forgetaboutit. Drought City Baby! In all seriousness, we could see something early next week but Im not putting my hopes in it. Not yet.

Storm Cancel again..the Drought wins again

well, the storm that appeared to maybe give us a chance for some rain this weekend is heading way north of us so we will be lucky to get a few drops. The good thing is the temps will be much cooler this weekend and into the early part of next week. By Wed, we should start to see another warmup.

Once your in a drought...its really hard to get it to rain.

Possible Storm this Weekend?

It looks like another mostly dry period with most of the heat occuring in the 1st part. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day as we could hit 95. There is a chance for Thunderstorms pretty much everyday this week but as usual, they will be hit and miss.

The big change could come as we head towards friday with the possibility of some stormy weather and cooler temps. I will update later after the 12z model runs.

Storm Cancel

My old friend, the European model let me down as it took away the storm that it had for us for tomorrow. From my last Monday post, it had a pretty potent storm developing in the Gulf and coming up the coast but unfortunately, thats not going to happen and i should of waited to see at least one more run before mentioning the possibility.

There is a chance of showers and storms tonight and the weekend will be pleaseant(So there is some relief coming) before the next round of heat arrive early next week. The European does have a little wave to the south of us on Friday that could give us some rain so ill check on that in more detail.

Weekend looks pretty nice!

Heat Wave but relief coming?

STORM POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY

Searing Heat for the next few days as highs will most likely hit near the 100 mark today and Tuesday. I expect to flirt with and reach 100 degrees both days.

But there is relief in sight....a stormier pattern may be in the offering and we could see a couple of storms towards the end of the week that might give us some much needed rain and temperature relief.

In fact, the latest run of the European has nice storm developing in the Gulf States and heading up the Eastern Seaboard for Thursday and Friday. That could give us the rainy day we have all been looking for. Behind that is another possible storm developing down south that could give us another event during the last part of the weekend. But thats 7 days away. Our best chance appears to be Thursday and Friday.

On Wednesday, we will start seeing temp relief as temps will drop back into a more tolerable range. Stay tuned for updates on the storm!

Im Back and the Heat is far behind

Been on Vacation but Im back now. I will update soon but it looks like next week is going to be sickly hot.

A Rockin Show today?

Today could be one of the best days weve had in terms of severe weather. Im certainly not an expert on predicting Severe Weather so this is what the NWS in sterling has to say about it

345
fxus61 klwx 281419
afdlwx


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
1019 am EDT Thursday Jun 28 2007


Synopsis...
high pressure centered off the South Carolina coast will
drift east. A cold front over Michigan will approach the area this
evening allowing more widespread thunderstorm activity to occur.
Showers and thunderstorms will track across the area early Friday
with the passage of the cold front. Cool high pressure will build in
from the Midwest over the weekend and early next week providing the
area with a cooler and less humid airmass.


&&


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
latest radar loop showing convection well west of area but moving
east at a good clip. Wind fields much better
today...unidirectional...0-6km storm motion around 300 degrees at
16kts. Multi-cell storms with damaging winds still looks good for
this afternoon/evening. Freezing levels still quite high...14.8kft.
Mixed layer cape around 1550 and sref forecasting a high probability of
2000+ j/kg favoring our southern and eastern zones late this
afternoon.


Temperatures will be 2-4 degrees cooler than yesterday highs.
Although urban areas may still get close to the 100 degree heat
index.


&&


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/...
if severe storms do develop..blv these would be ongoing around 7 PM
and continue through the evening hours. West/ as much
Theta-E as will be available doubt sunset will
have much effect on the atmosphere ahead of the fnt...so active cnvctn
possible into central Maryland/lower southern Maryland well into evening.
As night progresses blv convective chances lessen near Mason-Dixon
...and have changed precipitation type to
just rain shower across the north.


Unlike prvs two days there will be some wind aloft tda/tngt.
Heavy rain is certainly possible west/ any storms
..but the possiblity of flsh fldg is
lessened as these shouldn't be near-stationary.


Even west/ fnt moving through region still
xpctg a warm overnight - m70s inner cities...l60s far west.


&& 

Spectacular Stretch of Weather coming up

The Peak of the Heat is today as temps should soar into the low to mid 90's. Believe it or not, New England has a better chance of upper 90's than we do as high humidity and partly cloudy skies will prevent us from hitting 100.

Anyway..big changes come tomorrow as a cold front passes. The cold front should trigger showers and Thunderstorms which will end up being our last chance of rain for about a week or so. It will also kill the mini heat wave. We could get some substantial rain out of it(But i also thought we could get some in the past 2 days and that didnt happen.)

The big story will be once the cold front passes, a trough will setup in the east and this is a pretty deep trough. If it was winter, I would be really excited but the bottom line is the trough will keep things cool for this weekend and next week. We will see a gradual increase in heat next week but nothing we cant handle. Worst case scenario is that the temps will normal towards the end of next week. This weekend will be spectacular with some of the most comfortable late June Weather you will ever experience.

Here is the European Model 500mb map for early next week. Notice the big trough in the east and the ridge in the central United States. Perfect scenario for comfortable temps in the middle of summer. Enjoy

Not as Hot as I thought and early peak at July 4

Well I spent all this time Friday talking about a possible 100 degree day next week...but its not happening. After further looking at the modeling this morning, it appears that there will be too much cloud cover for us to reach 100. The conditions wont be as ripe as I thought. The hot Day of the week still looks it will be Wednesday but 93 is probably the Max we will hit. So cancel the hype...i guess i just overreacted. There is also going to be a good chance for Thunderstoms this week as we might get a decent amount of activity. No day will be a washout but afternoon T-storms are very possible with some being severe in Nature.

It does look like next week and heading into July 4 will be spectacular especially July 1-2! Usually July 4 is a steaming hot but it looks like we will have incredibly comfortable weather. More on that later.

Another shot of Intense Heat for next week

I like to try to focus the forecast generally a week out from the given date so for this post, I would like to talk about next week. Next week is going to be hot...probably the hottest weather we have had all season. As we head towards July, if the temperature at 5000 feet above sea level is 20 degrees for example, and its Sunny(Not overcast) and its July or Late June, you can add 15 additional degrees to that and forecast your temp on the surface. For Example, The 00z European model run has for next Wednesday at 7pm 850mb(5000 feet) temps at about 20.2. Since its Late June, if you tack on 15 to the 20.2..you get 35.2. 35.2 C at 7pm is 95 degrees. At 7pm! So what is it going to be at 3pm? Well the shorter term more high resolution models can break it down by the hour but I'm guessing Next Wednesday, We will see temps near 100 degrees. Here is a chart courtesy of (www.wxrisk.com) that gives a good general rule of thumb of how to use the 850mb temps to make your forecast.



So next week, its going to be hot again for probably Tuesday,Wed and Thur before it cools down again. I dont see much rain in the next couple of days but in the summer, there is always a chance for a late day shower or TStorm