Snowstorm on the way?

Sorry I haven't updated lately but there has been lots going on and most of it hasn't been weather related. But thats about to change. The models are showing a alot of cold air in Canada ready to be sent down to the United States. The cold air is scheduled to arrive this weekend. To make matters more interesting, a storm system is forecasted to develop in the southern plains and a good deal of moisture may override the large dome of cold air that will be funneling south from Canada. What that could mean for us is a sizable snow to ice to rain event for next week. This is important because its rare that it snows so early in the season and because temps will have to be much below normal to get this event to happen. Normal temps in early December are still around 50 so you have to be radically below normal to get snow this early in the season. Ironically, it has snowed in early Dec 3 times since 2003 all around Dec 5. Very weird but it could happen again.

The models now show a major winter storm. Stay tuned!

Lots of interesting weather on the way

First of all, the pattern has definitely changed. This morning is our 3rd rain event in the past 5 days after not being able to buy rain for months.

Once today's rain ends, it will warm up for the next couple of days before....more rain and cooler temps come in. A cold front will come through sometime and usher in another 1/2 inch of rain and get us really cold for the weekend.

Then for early next week, their is some signals for a storm cracking the the Tennessee valley that could head towards the Mid Atlantic. At this point, it does look like mainly a rain event, but there could be enough cold air around to make it interesting. I think the ski areas of Maryland and West Virginia and PA could do really well from this storm. The questions will be mainly about the track of the storm and if there is cold pressure in Eastern Canada. The problem is....its still November and it takes nearly perfect conditions to get snow in DC. But for the mountains just outside DC metro...this could be something really worth watching

Thanksgiving is looking pretty cold right now...and overall the end of November looks pretty cold and interesting.

Charged and Ready to go

Hey guys,

I took a break from this but now I am ready to go. Winter is here and it is by far the most exciting time of the year if your a fan of weather. As you can tell already, cold air is starting to pour in from Canada and today through Sunday, will give us an unseasonable shot of cold and maybe...just maybe a few wet snow flakes on Friday night.

Here is the 6z Nam and it does show some precip overhead with 850mb temps below zero. The problem is its early November and the other crucial layers of the atmosphere may be too warm for snow so I could definitely see some flakes mixing in.

temps during the day will be too warm for snow but marginal at night. I think tomorow night, we see temps dip as low as 26-27 at IAD.

It will warm up next week but maybe another cold shot in 10 days.

Rainy Week

looking at the latest models, it appears that we are going to have a major rain event this weekend. It could be a long duration event that gives us much needed 2-4 inches. As I said last week, i believe this coming week will be the rainiest week in a long time. We are in desperate need of it. It will also cool down as the week progresses too but we have a few more warm days to deal with.

Dont forget about tomorrows rain too....we could get about an inch from that. This is an important week for the region.

Major Changes....Again

Well the cool didnt last long as we quickly got back into much above normal temps after a 4 day stretch of normal to below normal weather.

Look at these temps the past few days at IAD. Keep in Mind the average temp for this time period is about 67

Wed=82 15 above normal
Tues=77 10 above normal
Mon=75 8 above normal

The above average temps will continue tor a few more days especially in the wake of a storm heading towards the midwest that might give us a chance for severe weather and and a little possible rain.

But its next week, where we could see some more serious changes in forms of a big rain maker and much colder temps.

I am going on record that next week will be the rainiest week we have seen since winter and its going to get chilly as we head into the last days of October and into November.

There is a a chance that November actually ends up being a cold month after many many days of above normal weather.

Looks like a miss

Looks like a big storm may brew this weekend but the surface low is going to form too far north to get DC in the ball game. The major effects of this storm will be in New England...especially Northern New England unless something changes. I will keep you updated.

Cooldown yes
big Rainstorm--not likely

MAJOR CHANGES ON THE WAY

Folks,

No need to rehash the obvious. Its hot and summer has been endless. It dosent rain and the weather has been the same since June pretty much. But Major Changes are coming as soon as Wednesday when a strong cold front rolls through and changes the pattern. By this weekend, we could be looking at a potential Major Noreaster with Heavy Rains and high winds and temps about 30-40 degrees cooler than what they were on Sunday. Stay tuned. Rain Amounts could be termendous if this panned out. We could see some rain mid week as the cold front comes through but it wont be much and nothing compared to the potential of the weekend.

Absurd heat but major relief coming

this weekend and the first part of next week is going to feature some absurd October heat but a pattern change is coming at least temporarily and a trough will be over the east by next weekend sending us to below normal to normal for about a week.

We have to get through the heat first.

Same old Sh.......

More warm coming. As long as the trough is in the west, we are going to be getting doused with warmth and it some cases record warmth. It looks like the October 4-8 period will again give us unusually warm weather.

Definite cool down possible as we approach Mid October but Mild will rule until then

More of the same just not AS hot

Yesteday, IAD broke a record by hitting 93 which is unbelievable for this time of year. What is also unbelievable is the lack of rain we have had all summer. We may get a shower or two tonight but there is nothing in the modeling that gives us any hope for real rain anytime soon. Also, it appear that for this upcoming winter, we are going to have a La Nina which if it gets too strong might really ruin winter here for us. More in that later but dont panic..we still have some hope for a decent winter.

But again, it looks like today is the last really hot day we will have of the year as a cold front does come through tonight and take us back to near normal for the weekend. We are not going to see any below normal temps as long as the pattern is what it is. Trough in the west and a Ridge in the East. We will stay normal to above normal until the pattern shifts and again nothing rainwise for the next week

Not much going on

No rain to speak off. Temps are very comfortable. It will probably climb to the low 80's towards the end of the week and we could get downright really warm for Sept early next week but that looks to be short lived. I dont like our rain chances for the rest of the week or early into next week. Story of the Summer

Really...there is nothing going on right now worth blogging about.

Its a beautiful day

The heat and humidity that has been so persistent has taken a hike and has been replaced by much drier,cooler and less humid air. This will be the dominant feature for the next 7 days as today is the first shot of cooler air and then an even more impressive cool shot will occur over the weekend where highs could be in the upper 60' and lows in the 40's in the N and W Burbs.

I am going to start posting more now as we start to head into winter. I will update the blog later with our chances for rain and hurricane potential.

The Hurricane Threat is a bust

Terrible forecasting by the models and by the people(like me) that use them lol. The usually reliable ECMWF backed off a few days ago and the GFS looks like it might score a coup here as it was never impressed. So very disappointing for alot of us who needed the rain and some fun. The high Shear really took away any chance for the blob to develop. Its not even a depression yet. It may eventually become a tropical storm but the serious threat is definitely gone.

The heat isnt a bust though and it dosent want to go away. The warmth will continue for a good part into next week before some REAL FALL Weather comes and gives us big relief by next weekend maybe.

Sneaky Hurricance to hit the SE Coast?

While our 2nd Category 5 hurricane in the past few weeks is creating Havoc in Hondurous, the models are now developing an area of low pressure off the SE coast which has it intensifying and actually hitting the SC coast a Cat 2 or 3 Hurricane. The 00z European models shows this nicely as a 1004mb low SW of the SE coastline intensified as it hits land. If this were to happen, we could be talking about major winds and flooding for the East Coast. The European has shown this solution now twice in a row. The GFS has it but its much more of a sheared look and is not threatening in the least. This is something major to watch and could really affect the weekend. Behind the potential event, there could be a impressive rush of cool air for next week but at least for this week until we resolve this situation, it will be warm and dry

Im back...thankfully the heat isnt

I took a break from the blog from a while...but Im ready to go again. Fall is just around the corner and we actually got some decent rain last week so things are changing just a bit. Saturday was brutally hot and oppressive but I dont see that kind of weather happening anymore this year. Not like that anyway. There maybe one 90 degree day this week but this weekend will actually be really nice tempwise. As far as rain, we had our rainiest week this past week in a long time as most of the week was damp and cloudy. Hurricane Dean ended up being a Category 5 monster but it completely missed the United States.

This week is going to be boring...no rain and temps around normal. No sign of any Cane ready to hit the United States.

Rock me like a Hurricane

Well the models were right in that a hurricane did form in the Atlantic. The hurricane is now known as Hurricane Dean. Where Dean will go is the big question. Here is the current location of the Cane.

Most models right now have this baby hitting the Yucatan and sparing the United States. Previous models runs had this storm all over the place hitting places ranging from Houston to New Jersey lol.

Ill update you after the 12z model runs but a few of the newer model runs are hinting at the possibility of a more northern turn and possibly being a threat to the Gulf States.

Another Warm Week but Changes may be coming

So far every day this August has been over 90 degrees as Dulles hit 96 last night. We will probably hit the mid 90's again today but not reach 100 like I thought earlier in the week but after that, we do get a brief relief as we stay in the 80's for the weekend.

Next week is shaping pretty warm again(not as hot as this past week) but there are changes coming and by the end of next week, we could actually be seeing temps below normal(early fall preview) as a trough sets up over the East.

There is also more and more noise in the modeling regarding the possible development of a hurricane. Both the GFS and the European show a hurricane by day 10. Lets see if it develops first and then we can start worrying about the track or whether it will recurve.

DCA at 102 at 2pm

IAD is still 99--we need to get rid of the clouds. ETA mos has IAD at 104 which would break the all time record but those darn clouds!

We have another chance at 100 on Friday and then we get some much needed relief. Maybe only upper 80's on Saturday!

The Struggle to 100

The ETA Mos(guidance) is down a bit from what it was yesterday and has forecasted us to hit 98 degrees today but with humidity, the heat index will be in the 105 range. If its going to be this hot, lets go for 100 and break some records. My forecast now is 99 at IAD. Tomorrow, is looking equally as hot as the ETA MOS is 99. I believe we will hit 100 in the next 2 days.

We will probably get some relief over the weekend but still plenty warm. Not oppressive though. the 00z GFS run showed a full latitude trough by 10 day which would take us to below normal for a few days but its too far out to say anymore about it and it dosent have support from the European.

Also, the models are starting to show some "noise" in the tropics. Still no signs of development but we could start seeing some activity in about 10 days. Stay tuned!

Can we hit 100 on Tuesday?

So far, every day this August has hit at least 90 and its been mostly mid 90's. Tuesday, we have a chance to rock and roll and hit the magic mark of 100.This will definitely be our best chance of the summer. So to recap, today will be upper 90's. Tomorrow, we will probably achieve the rare magic mark of 100 and then Wednesday we will probably low to mid 90's. No major rainstorm as usual but there is always the threat of a thunderstorm or showers in the afternoon. We got a bit of rain overnight but definitely nothing that would even make a dent in our drought.

There is one bit of good news. There is a chance that a trough develops in the East at the start of next weekend which could over us relief from the relentless heat we had the past week or so.

Still nothing in the tropic to get excited about