I really want to do the blog again next winter. Having a kid this winter really limited my time. If there are going to be any good Hurricanes, I will definitely update the board but this is mainly going to be a winter blog cause thats where all the existing weather is. Hopefully, we can get more snow next year.
I havent blogged in over a month
1) because I am busy at work
2) New kid
3) This winter has been horrendously boring and there is really nothing to blog about.
The pattern of this winter is
1) Warmth and sometimes Extreme Warmth
2) Followed by Cold and Dry
3) The Cold moves out intime for the next storm
4) Storm moves west of us and gives us rain while the midwest gets snow
5) Cold moves back in but no storm
6) Cold moves out intime for next storm that cuts west of us
7) rinse and repeat.
However, we may have a chance late this week/Weekend at a possible winter storm so stay tuned. I will be blogging this week!
Folks, if you like snow, your time has come. It appears that the event today is going to outpeform the modeling and even do better than I thought it was capable. A general 3-6 for N and W of DC.
There is one this weekend though that really bears watching. Update later today but one model is giving us an incredible snowstorm. Lets see if the others latch on.
1st chance is tomorrow. A storm from the gulf of mexico will head up the eastern seaboard. However, the cold air in place will not hold so it will start as snow and then turn to mix before ending. I think however enough snow will fall west of I-95 that we could see a light accumulation before the changeover. Temps will stay in the lower 30's and start to rise overnight as the storm center comes closer. Not a big storm but an interesting event.
2nd chance is Saturday night before the really cold air comes in for sunday. A wave is going to develop and skirt the area. Right now, the potential for light snow is there but we will have to watch this for bigger development.
3rd chance is the storm I am most excited about. I believe the cards are there for a significant storm in the Jan 24-25 time period. Stay tuned!
Well, the storm i was tracking did look good for us for a few days but the models were waffling with it so it was hard to make a good forecast. In the end, the storm that was suppose to develop in the Gulf of Mexico ended not organizing till it hit the mid Atlantic Coast meaning that we would be to far south to get the best dynamics of the storm. This storm as usual looks to be a New England Special. Even with the good track, the surface temps were still marginal. In any case, this storm is not ours.
There is another storm for thursday that might be interesting but again any cold air available will be lost as the storm approaches so at the very best, we could start out as snow and quickly change to rain.
The big news is the cold air coming this weekend. It could be the coldest weekend in many years and shatter records. I will pinpoint how cold it could get starting tomorrow but it could be severe.
As far as snowstorms, we will have our chances in the next 2 weeks but nothing i can put a finger on as far as what time period to look for one.
No, I am not pulling the trigger just yet but a storm that I have been tracking for about 10 days is now starting to come into focus. A storm system sunday will develop in the gulf of mexico and work its way up the coast. Models have been really inconsistent in handling the storm so its been really hard to pinpoint whats going to happen. However, I am more confident now that there will be a storm that will head up the coast after developing in the gulf of mexico.
Usually, this is a super track for us but some things are making me wary of pulling the trigger for a snowstorm.
1) No real cold high pressure to our north...there is a weak high pressure though
2) Its been so warm lately that when it does start to cool, the cold air will be marginal at best. There is no arctic air whatsoever
3) Seasonal trends of storms tracking to far N and W
4) Upper features I look for in a snowstorm are not there
so for right now, I am forecasting a winter storm to affect our area. my best guess is that it will be a snowstorm well West and North of DC with a mix in the n and w burbs and mosty rain in DC. I will keep you posted.
More important, i think this will be the start of a pretty exciting 10-15 day period in which cold and stormy conditions could be the rule and not the exception
Its been tough to find time to blog. First of all, the weather has been really boring for the Mid Atlantic..plus with a new kid, i just haven't made it a priority but I really do like doing the weather blog so I am going to try to update it at least 3-4 times a week.
You probably all know that warmth is coming but its not the kind of warmth that will last 30 or so days like we have seen in prior years. There is a chance that it could hit 70 in DCA around Jan 8 or so and its going to be very warm for a period of 3-4 days. But I am already seeing signs of going to a colder pattern in time for mid month so this warm while it may be spectacular dosent appear to have any long lasting bite to it.
As far as snow, well its been a no show since our dec 5 clipper. There have been some threats but the storms have all trended NW and we ended up with a near miss but rain. Dont even think about snow till at least mid month. Maybe by then, we will have another shot
Well,
This does not appear to be the good snow maker that it was a few days ago. We do have the arctic high in place which is great but what is killing us is there is phasing of energy too early which allows for a more northerly and westerly movement of the primary low.
The primary low is forecasted to head all the way up to the Ohio valley before transferring the energy to the coast. Once the transfer is complete, the coastal is hugging the coast too much to give us snow and its also transferring to far north due to the movement of the primary low.
So my forecast for DCA is snow to ice to Mostly Rain. No accumulation
n and W of DCA could see an inch or two...prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain and then rain before changing back to snow at the end
Central PA,Central NY could be getting 2-3 feet of snow. This was almost a huge one but not quite enough.
Sorry guys....its still Fall! We have a few more months yet to go
Ive done a terrible job with the blog. I haven't updated it. Part of that has been lazy and the other part is having a new baby and not much time for it.
But a special event is going to occur this weekend and the big question is how much snow? Current models show an extreme precipitation event that would rival some of the bigger historic storms. The question is track and if the Cold Air funneling from Canada will stay in place for the duration of the storm.
Whoever stays all snow on the East Coast(Most likely Mountains,Interior Regions) could see snow in feet. For the coastal plain, its going to be a close call but this could really be a storm that we soon don't forget. The impact of the storm will be Saturday into Sunday.
Im 90% confident that there will be a storm. I know have to figure out the details but expect some major travel disruption this weekend. Check back. I will be updating this frequently.
After the storm, it will get mild for a while but this December could go down as a very cold and stormy one when all is said and done
Sorry I haven't updated lately but there has been lots going on and most of it hasn't been weather related. But thats about to change. The models are showing a alot of cold air in Canada ready to be sent down to the United States. The cold air is scheduled to arrive this weekend. To make matters more interesting, a storm system is forecasted to develop in the southern plains and a good deal of moisture may override the large dome of cold air that will be funneling south from Canada. What that could mean for us is a sizable snow to ice to rain event for next week. This is important because its rare that it snows so early in the season and because temps will have to be much below normal to get this event to happen. Normal temps in early December are still around 50 so you have to be radically below normal to get snow this early in the season. Ironically, it has snowed in early Dec 3 times since 2003 all around Dec 5. Very weird but it could happen again.
The models now show a major winter storm. Stay tuned!
First of all, the pattern has definitely changed. This morning is our 3rd rain event in the past 5 days after not being able to buy rain for months.
Once today's rain ends, it will warm up for the next couple of days before....more rain and cooler temps come in. A cold front will come through sometime and usher in another 1/2 inch of rain and get us really cold for the weekend.
Then for early next week, their is some signals for a storm cracking the the Tennessee valley that could head towards the Mid Atlantic. At this point, it does look like mainly a rain event, but there could be enough cold air around to make it interesting. I think the ski areas of Maryland and West Virginia and PA could do really well from this storm. The questions will be mainly about the track of the storm and if there is cold pressure in Eastern Canada. The problem is....its still November and it takes nearly perfect conditions to get snow in DC. But for the mountains just outside DC metro...this could be something really worth watching
Thanksgiving is looking pretty cold right now...and overall the end of November looks pretty cold and interesting.
Hey guys,
I took a break from this but now I am ready to go. Winter is here and it is by far the most exciting time of the year if your a fan of weather. As you can tell already, cold air is starting to pour in from Canada and today through Sunday, will give us an unseasonable shot of cold and maybe...just maybe a few wet snow flakes on Friday night.
Here is the 6z Nam and it does show some precip overhead with 850mb temps below zero. The problem is its early November and the other crucial layers of the atmosphere may be too warm for snow so I could definitely see some flakes mixing in.
temps during the day will be too warm for snow but marginal at night. I think tomorow night, we see temps dip as low as 26-27 at IAD.
It will warm up next week but maybe another cold shot in 10 days.
looking at the latest models, it appears that we are going to have a major rain event this weekend. It could be a long duration event that gives us much needed 2-4 inches. As I said last week, i believe this coming week will be the rainiest week in a long time. We are in desperate need of it. It will also cool down as the week progresses too but we have a few more warm days to deal with.
Dont forget about tomorrows rain too....we could get about an inch from that. This is an important week for the region.
Well the cool didnt last long as we quickly got back into much above normal temps after a 4 day stretch of normal to below normal weather.
Look at these temps the past few days at IAD. Keep in Mind the average temp for this time period is about 67
Wed=82 15 above normal
Tues=77 10 above normal
Mon=75 8 above normal
The above average temps will continue tor a few more days especially in the wake of a storm heading towards the midwest that might give us a chance for severe weather and and a little possible rain.
But its next week, where we could see some more serious changes in forms of a big rain maker and much colder temps.
I am going on record that next week will be the rainiest week we have seen since winter and its going to get chilly as we head into the last days of October and into November.
There is a a chance that November actually ends up being a cold month after many many days of above normal weather.
Looks like a big storm may brew this weekend but the surface low is going to form too far north to get DC in the ball game. The major effects of this storm will be in New England...especially Northern New England unless something changes. I will keep you updated.
Cooldown yes
big Rainstorm--not likely
Folks,
No need to rehash the obvious. Its hot and summer has been endless. It dosent rain and the weather has been the same since June pretty much. But Major Changes are coming as soon as Wednesday when a strong cold front rolls through and changes the pattern. By this weekend, we could be looking at a potential Major Noreaster with Heavy Rains and high winds and temps about 30-40 degrees cooler than what they were on Sunday. Stay tuned. Rain Amounts could be termendous if this panned out. We could see some rain mid week as the cold front comes through but it wont be much and nothing compared to the potential of the weekend.
this weekend and the first part of next week is going to feature some absurd October heat but a pattern change is coming at least temporarily and a trough will be over the east by next weekend sending us to below normal to normal for about a week.
We have to get through the heat first.
More warm coming. As long as the trough is in the west, we are going to be getting doused with warmth and it some cases record warmth. It looks like the October 4-8 period will again give us unusually warm weather.
Definite cool down possible as we approach Mid October but Mild will rule until then
Yesteday, IAD broke a record by hitting 93 which is unbelievable for this time of year. What is also unbelievable is the lack of rain we have had all summer. We may get a shower or two tonight but there is nothing in the modeling that gives us any hope for real rain anytime soon. Also, it appear that for this upcoming winter, we are going to have a La Nina which if it gets too strong might really ruin winter here for us. More in that later but dont panic..we still have some hope for a decent winter.
But again, it looks like today is the last really hot day we will have of the year as a cold front does come through tonight and take us back to near normal for the weekend. We are not going to see any below normal temps as long as the pattern is what it is. Trough in the west and a Ridge in the East. We will stay normal to above normal until the pattern shifts and again nothing rainwise for the next week
No rain to speak off. Temps are very comfortable. It will probably climb to the low 80's towards the end of the week and we could get downright really warm for Sept early next week but that looks to be short lived. I dont like our rain chances for the rest of the week or early into next week. Story of the Summer
Really...there is nothing going on right now worth blogging about.
