Quick update on storm

A moderate storm for Thursday-Friday. Looks like a mostly snow event with general snowfall ranges of 2-5 inches. I believe this will mix with ice/sleet in DC and south and east With no upstream blocking, this storm will fly up the coast and limit the amount of moisture it drops in a given location. Very quick mover but this should be our biggest storm of the weekend.

There is another possible event to watch this weekend which would have more potential if it were to develop but many things have to go right. Right now its a threat at best. The Siberian express will be here next week.

More later.

Major Winter Storm for Late this week

Well...

As you know, I forecasted a winter storm last week in my last update and I see no reason to make any changes. It appears that a winter storm is headed for the Mid Atlantic for late this week. Ill go into that in a second.

First of all, i was surprised by how warm it got on Saturday after the arctic front came through on Thursday night. But we are in a winter pattern and as you heard last night, the winds and the cold came back in strong fashion as a new arctic air mass rolled into town. So we were basically between air masses over the weekend. The fresh batch of arctic air will be an important player for a storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico later in the week.

Storm Discussion:

It appears that low pressure will develop in the gulf of mexico and track NE to the VA coast and then up the eastern seaboard. This storm does have issues as there isnt High Pressure to the North which is what is needed to keep the storm all snow. Most of our big dumps have high pressure in Eastern Canada funneling cold air down. This one wont. The fresh arctic air that arrived last night will be stale by the end of the week. It appears that the more west you are of DC and the other I95 big cities, the more snow will fall as DC and East will likely have a changeover to ice aand rain while Dulles Airport,Fredrick,Hagerstown would be mostly snow and then change to sleet before ending. It will be a very close call with regards to temps and will have to update this basically everyday. Even up North as you head towards boston, the storm will start as snow and probably changeover. But expect a nice dump of snow from DC to Boston before a changeover. The track could still change so this will need updating. This looks like it would be a Thursday night/Friday event. All in all, this should be our biggest event of the season but certainly not a blockbuster.

After the storm passes, We will have a painfully cold stretch as Ive been hyping for a while and there will be additional storm threats with colder air involved but well save that for another discussion.

Severe Winter Conditions possible in the next 2 weeks

Well, our first arctic shot will be coming in later today and tonight. Dont be suprised if you see some snow squalls and rapid whiteout conditions. Any snow should be brief but be aware of the possibility of a suprise or two.

The general trend over the next 7 days is dry and cold. Tomorrow appears to be the coldest day as temps will not make it out of the 20's. Windchill should be near zero tonight and through most of tomorrow. But thats Child's play compared to what may be coming down the road in early February when straight Vodka plunges down from Siberia.

There is a chance we may see some accumulating snow on Saturday and its something Im watching carefully. The general storm will miss to our south but there is a chance that some of that moisture makes it up here and gives us a surprise snow event(not big of course) but I will update tomorrow.

Finally, I am looking for a pretty good size snowstorm for late next week as the dry pattern ends and the southern stream becomes more involved. If this snowfall happens, it will be before the arctic blast. If there is snow on the ground, We could have a day in early February where the high day time tempreture never makes it above single Digits.

I will do a full update tommorow but Im going out on a limb and forecasting a major winter storm for late next week(Gulp)

Get ready for some Vodka Cold

I got some bad news and some really bad news. Well the storm potential I was geeked about on Saturday does not look like its going to materialize on time for it to effect us late this week. The phasing is going to occur too late and it appears the storm will be heading for the fishes. The models had it for a few runs but lost it on Saturday night.

Thats the bad news.

Now the really bad news. The models are showing a brutally cold air mass that could be heading for the US late in January. This is the kind of cold that is painful. We are getting a very cold shot for this Thursday and Friday where temps may not even make it out of the teens in the daytime but that may pale in compairson of what could come towards the end of January.

The models show cold air coming directly from Siberia into the Eastern United States. How is that for global warming? What makes this really hard to take is that its also going to be a dry pattern and probably no storminess till Feb 1 or so. If anything change, I will keep you up to date. But the talk of the town the next 10 days will be Brutal Cold. There is no sign of any warming for the forseable future.

Major Winter Storm possible for Jan 25-26

Folks,

Remember yesterday i said there is a lot of energy in the atmosphere and if ever conslidated and the jet stream branches phased, we could see a pretty big storm. The models now have a partial phase which yields a major but not historic snowstorm for the east coast for jan 25-26. The models had been hinting at this for a few days but never put it together till last night and todays noon runss. Now all the models arent on board yet but this is just a general warning for a possible major winter storm for Thursday-Friday it appears. IF we were to get a fully phasing of the jet stream branches(arctic branch,polar branch and southern branch), it would be a historical storm. If there is no phase, the storm would slide out to sea and we would be waving bye to it. For now...i am throwing the possibility of a major snowstorm. Obviously, will update this constantly. New England, as usual, looks to get the brunt of this if it were to occur with up to 2 feet in the ski areas.

As for tomorrow, i still expect to see 1-2 inches of snow primarly from DC south. I also expect some warmer air to work its way over the cold air and possibly change the snow to freezing rain on sunday night, so the rush hour commute on Monday morning could be tricky. After tomorrow's little event, all eyes will be on the POTENTIAL snowstorm later in the week. This is not a forecast yet...the timing has to be perfect and i want to see all the other models on board before we start buying milk and bread.

Winter Pattern update

In case you havent noticed, its gotten cold. The days of 60's are long gone and the modeling shows no end to the cold in sight. As a matter of fact, we could have a severe artic outbreak towards the begining of February. I have a hard time believing that we wont see a major snowstorm or two before the pattern breaks whenever it breaks. We nowhave the greenland block which is conducive to keeping cold weather locked in and a couple of other features that are favorable for a wintry pattern.

Well who cares about cold? We want to know about snow right? A few days ago i mentioned the possiblity of a snow event that could drop a few inches. Ive been watching this and the modeling is taking the bulk of the precip south primarly due to the blocking. The blocking can be a friend or a foe sometimes. So while i still think it will snow on Monday, i think at the best-we will do 1-2 inches with more south than north. There is alot of energy in the atmosphere and until it consildates and the northern branch and southern branch of the jetstreams merge or phase, the Big One will not happen. I do think the big one will happen but probably not till the end of january, early february.

I will watch the storm over the weekend as it will drop a good amount of snow over the southern plains and a good ice storm for the Carolinas but for us, we are on the northern edge. If i had to guess now i would say 1-2 inches for our area probably leaning towards the 1 inch. If anything changes and i have to cancel or upgrade, i will post this weekend.

Snow likely for Monday-Tuesday

There is pretty good model agreement for a snow event for next Monday and Tuesday in the Mid Atlantic. At this time, it does not look like a powerful storm but its definitely worth keeping an eye on. The Models are also showing the Greenland Block which a great feature to have if you are looking for winter weather. There are going to be numerous threats over the next 2 weeks so we will go through them one by one. The one this Friday looks like it will only affect the coastal areas and that one would be a mix. But the one for Monday-Tuesday of next week could drop a few inches of snow. Again….for this winter, it’s going to seem like a blizzard but at this point, it doesn’t appear to be a huge storm.

Bundle up….winter is here

The Blowtorch is running out of fuel

As of tomorrow, the blowtorch will be turned off for a while. I don’t except to see these kind of temps anymore until Spring. Once the cold front blows through, temps will drop and we will be in a new pattern. The cold front should come through tomorrow and temps on Wednesday may not break freezing during the daytime.

There is a chance of a wintry mix this Friday especially as you head North and East of the big cites. So that is something to keep an eye on. The Weekend looks very cold and we have to watch for a major storm brewing for early next week around Monday and Tuesday(Jan 21-22). I will have more information on that later this week to see if the threat is legitiamte. Colder air with an active southern jet stream next week may induce our first Major Winter storm. Stay tuned!

The Cold is Coming. But will it snow?

The cold is coming. I’ve beaten the band to death about the arriving cold. After one last warm weekend and rain, an arctic front will push through by Jan 15th and we will be in a new world of shivers and shakes. But will it snow? Well, with the arrival of cold air, our chances go up dramatically but I haven’t seen anything in the modeling that’s getting me overly excited. Ive already promised some people snow late next week so the pressure is on to deliver. The active southern jet stream will provide opportunities but so far all the modeling is showing the threats suppressed(South of us) or out to sea. This is a pretty good pattern for delivering numbing cold but I like to see the Greenland Block(High pressure over Greenland) to get excited about snowstorms that can shut down cities.

There will be numerous threats in the next 10 days but no locks yet. But the first step is getting the cold and its certainly coming and it looks like it will be prolonged.

Notes: It appears that the 2^nd half of the weekend will be cloudy and rainy. There will be a very intense boundary between the cold air to our north and the warmer air that will be over us. So if your driving from DC North to New England…there could be some ice snow up there while we are warm and rainy. And Just for fun, the model does show a near blizzard for the East Coast on January 20 but I don’t buy it right now.

A taste of winter, a taste of spring and then an onslaught of more Winter

Hope you guys enjoyed Saturday. I went to Giant to buy some ground beef for grilling burgers and it was all sold out! Apparently, everyone had the same idea. Saturday broke almost every record on the east coast for warmth. Simply an amazing day. Whats even more amazing is that it will be a memory at this time next week as we go into a more wintry type pattern with much colder weather and numerous snow threats. The change will be shocking to a lot of people but not to you guys as you have been warned about this for the past 2 weeks.

Its amazing that with the advances of computer modeling that not only can forecaters call the blowtorch 2-3 weeks out, but they can also call the return of winter which I have been keying on since late December. Well this week is interesting because we get some winter and some spring before the true pattern change affects us. There is a clipper heading towards the Mid Atlantic Coast that could give us snow tonight/early tomorrow morning. Yes, there will be an impressive cool down for the early to mid part of the week. After that, it does get warm again temporarily as cold dumps into the west which forces a ridge in the SE atlantic to build and give us balmy weather again next weekend.

However, an artic cold front will be heading east and by the 15^th, will come through and we will begin an extended stretch of winter. Hopefully by midweek, I can start to key on when me might be getting snow/ice..but Im thinking at some point next week, we will get snow.

So to summarize

Jan 8-11 Cold,Chance of light snow tonight/early tomororw morning

Jan 12-15 One last blowtorch….cold front racing East

Jan 15-20 Much colder, Chance of snow/ice

I declare on the warmest day in many winters

that snow and cold are coming!

There is little doubt now--Winter is coming back strong

As we roast for a few more days, I am getting very confident of a pattern change that is going to shock alot of people that think winter is over.

By Jan 15, we should be seeing a) Colder air in place or Colder air just on the horizon and with a stormy Pattern in play...there is a very good chance that we could see several snow/ice storms in the 2nd half of January.

In the most extreme, we could get a 2nd half like January 1966 where like this year...was unusualy warm in the 1st half of winter and then had a dramatic turnaround ending in the blizzard of 1966 which was the 3rd storm after the pattern change.

however, next week is looking cold now after the rainstorm of Jan 7-8. We could see 3-4 days of pretty cold air before it briefly warms up before the real pattern change. Its coming folks! Dont be caught off guard

Here is a little blurb about the the 2nd half of January 1966

_This storm occurred over a three-day period from the 29th to 31st of January 1966. It was the third and most intense in a series of storms that hit the Mid Atlantic coast over a ten-day period. The heavy snow combined with temperatures that fell below -10 Celsius and wind gusts in excess of 25 m/s. The snowfall from the cyclone also combined with lake effect snow to leave 150 to 250 cm of snow to the region immediately to the south and east of Lake Ontario. Regions receiving at least ten inches of snow stretched from Virginia up into Maine. The snowfall exceeded the 20 inch mark in central New York, reaching 39.0 inches in Syracuse.

--
Posted By Ji to Ji's Weather Journal at 1/05/2007 06:04:00 AM

Spring is in the Air...but will flakes be soon?

The Blowtorch is on. Records will fall this week as the heat builds. Everyone will say winter over but you can impress them by saying it will come back.

I’m going to give you a simple timeline of how I expect the next few weeks to go.

Jan 4-7-- Blowtorch City. Could hit 70 degrees on Saturday. This should be no surprise as I’ve hyped this up for a few weeks now. Rainstorm Jan 7-8 from the Gulf of Mexico up the Eastern Seaboard

Jan 8-Rain storm. Still above average but cold front coming in. This will give us temporary bout of cold

Jan 9-10—Cold shot. Possible Clipper giving snow to Ohio,PA,New England. With how warm its been…this will feel really cold.

Jan 11-15 Pattern change begins. Arctic air starts pouring into NW Canada. As trough builds in Western US, a ridge pops open in the east and we temporary go back to blowtorch while the east gets cold. Cold air starts to slowly migrate East

Jan 15-20—Cold air starts to arrive in the east in this time frame give or take a day and we begin to talk about storm threats. By this time next week, I’ll have a better idea how long this will last and how harsh it could get. If we get a ridge building in Greenland, we could have a spectacular return of winter and possibly a very sustained stretch. Most El Nino Winters do much better in the 2nd half than the first half

For those of you guys who are cheering for it to keep warm…keep in mind. Warm winter usually equals cold miserable spring and also the Ski resorts are suffering really bad. Wouldn’t be surprised if some shut down for good.

Dont Pack up the Winter Coats just yet

Happy New Year everyone,

We will be starting the new year like we ended last year….unseasonable warmth. Any storms that we get will be in the form of rain and on Wednesday, we could hit 60-65 degrees. Keep in mind that the normal high temps on the East Coast now are between 38-43 so we are talking about temps being 10-20 degrees above normal for about the next 2 weeks

But…

The modeling is showing a major pattern change with the the building up of extreme cold air in Canada. Canada right now is blowtorching but at this time next week, will be rapidly cooling starting in NW Canada. The look of the cold air is extreme in some of the modeling. Eventually, that cold air will be making its way into the US probably starting first in the west and heading East. My guess is by Jan 15, very cold air will be knocking on our door and once it gets here….it may be here for a while. I suspect January 15 to Feb 30 will be colder and snowier than normal with the chance of some extremes. There is a chance that this turnaround could be so extreme that people are just shocked how a winter like this just flipped. But Im not jumping on that extreme just yet.

So a pattern change is on the way but not before it gets really warm.