Rain then more cold weather

Well, the storm for once actually outdid what I thought it would do and dropped a general 4-8 inches in the DC metro area. I mentioned on Saturday that were were in the bullseye and would probably see 3-4 inches before a changeover but we actually got a bit more. The local TV mets were clueless as nobody called for snow despite the models trending colder at the upper levels. Oh well.....But i really didnt think that DC south and east would get as much as they did.

Next event is Rain and it will be in the Thursday-Friday morning time frame. Temps will be in the 50's. Big snow and Ice storm for Interior New England. A skiers delight. After the storm passes, its going to get pretty cold for a few days. Right now, the first week of March looks like it will be well below normal. We should see a moderation in the 2nd week of March but after that...i do think it goes cold again. We may have seen our last snowstorm at least in the DC-philly area...but Im not ready to concede 100%. This maybe a winter that doesnt want to let go.

Final Storm update

Looks like the Northern Virgina-Maryland-DC area is in the bullseye with regards to how much moisture is going to fall. This appears to be a very wet system with up to 1.5 inches of moisture. With the models now trending a bit colder in the upper levels, we could see more snow than I thought. If your 20-25 miles W and N of DC, there is a good chance you could see 3-4 inches of snow before changing to ice. DC could see an inch or so...then some ice and then some rain. Could be some real problems W and N of DC. Northern Maryland/Central Maryland could see 6 inches plus of snow.

Significant Winter Storm for tommorow

While the Tv mets were calling for a warm weekend, i started honking Wednesday for a possible storm for Sunday. Looks like the storm is going to win out. A moist system with enough cold air to cause problems will be the focus starting early sunday morning and continuing throughout the day. Look for snow to start and accumulate maybe 1-2 inches before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. Areas N and W of DC will stay all frozen while DC south and east goes from Ice to rain. The more north you are like Northern Maryland,Central PA,Allentown...the more snow you will get. This storm wont be as bad as the Valentines Day storm because there is less moisture and more importantly..instead of temps being 21 with sleet, it will be 31. But if we get alot of freezing rain, there could be a significant accumulation on trees and power lines and it will cause problem. The storm should be out of here by Monday Morning. The really hard part to forecast is the upper level temps. If they stay cold enough...we could see more snow and less ice which would be the best case scenario. If i have any updates, Ill update tonight. Another Big Winter storm could approach in early March. Stay Tuned!

I will update on saturday regarding the Winter Storm

I dont have any real changes. The models indicate that some form of frozen precip will be falling on Sunday morning but I wont be able to pinpoint till tomorrow. The National Weather Service is thinking about issuing a Winter Storm Watch but its going to be a very close call to see how much snow we get in relation to ice and rain.

Update tomorrow.

Winter Storm Possible Sat night/Sunday--Very Windy today

The modeling is indicating cold air damning(CAD) occurring this weekend as a moisture from a storm to our west creeps up near us. CAD is basically is when cold air is funneled down against the east side of the Appalachians from our Arctic High Pressure usually located in Eastern Canada. Once that cold air gets wedged, its slow to move out. Usually, when a storm goes to our west, any high pressure that is over Eastern Canada slides out to sea and we warm rapidly. But in this case, the High pressure is being blocked by another system out near NewFoundland and cant slide out to sea. So what does all this jargon mean?

It means a Winter Storm may affect us Starting Saturday night and into Sunday. The precip could start as snow and then change to sleet and freezing rain before ending as rain. The upper levels look a bit colder than they did for the historical Valentines Day Ice storm so we could see a bit more snow. Its still 72 hours out so I will have to update this again tomorrow. It looks like N and W of DC will see a mostly frozen event while DC proper starts frozen and ends wet. The model is showing a good amount of moisture. Its still possible that this could be just a cold rain but I am leaning more toward a frozen event for now. This storm should also affect The Northeast including Boston. Stay tuned.

Also for today, a clipper will head to our north but the cold front will bring very windy conditions this afternoon and rapidly falling temps. It will feel like winter again when you go to your car for Pm rush hour.

Next Week is looking more and more wintry

Well the models today show colder solutions for this weekend and into next week. In fact, late in the weekend, we could see a prolonged period of freezing rain N and W of the DC and a decent winter storm in the Northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A cold front will pass tommorrow and knock temps to below average again for the weekend. A storm will approach from our west and track to our west but with an Arctic High pressure in Eastern Canada, there could be enough cold air for us to get freezing rain for a while before it warms enough to change it to rain.

After that, there are going to be a couple of more storms that will be interesting especially as we head into the first part of March. Stay Tuned...Winter is going to put up a huge fight before it gets knocked out.

One More Chance for Winter Weather

Today seemed like a tropical heatwave compared to what we have had the past 40 or so days aa the concrete ice is finally starting to melt. We are entering a new pattern in which there will be many storms to deal with but only one that could be a threat to give us wintry weather towards the first part of March.

This new pattern will features strong storms coming from the west and driving through the plains and heading up towards the Great lakes. With that track, that puts us on the "warm" side of these storma and we get alot of rain. The Severe Winter weather will be relegated to the plains and upper midwest. Each storm that passes will be followed by a cold front that will cool things down before the next storm arrives. There should be 2 major storms that give us rain over the next 7 days. Its the third storm that could occur in early March that would give us our last chance for winter weather as it takes a more southern route.

So to summarize: Here is what i see happening over the next 10-15 days. Again, trying to forecast so far out, this is certainly subject to change:)

Storm 1-Feb 25-26 Cold rain that could start as snow. Could be a good snowstorm for the Interior of the Northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Big Midwest Snowstorm.

Storm 2 March 1-2 Again--Cold Rain. Big Midwest Snowstorm

Storm 3 March 4-5 This could be a winter storm for us and the last shot of winter for the year.

Storm Recap and Warmer Weather coming

Back in a late January blog entry, I mentioned that we will be experiencing some pretty severe weather conditions. I dont think you will find more harsh winter conditions than we have had the past week. A Severe Winter Storm....5 inches of snow and sleet concrete..howling arctic winds....brutal cold air. The side streets are terrible. The one cool thing is if your not to heavy, you can walk on top of the snow and sleet without sinking. The Storm was brought up on this blog about 10 days before it occured so I think there was a decent job of pointing out the threat but it ended up being much less snowy and much more icy than I thought.

Anyway...we have sucked all the cold air possible of the atmosphere and by default, it just has to get warmer. Look for the gradual warmup to begin next week. On Feb 22-23, there will be another powerful winter storm headed east but at this time, the I95 corridor will experience mainly rain although it could end in a bit of snow. But for the interior regions of the Northern Mid Atlantic and New England, it could be another big wet snowstorm. But nevertheless, with cold air still hanging around, its something to keep an eye on

After the storm, I believe we will see a nice stretch of much warmer weather as a storm cranks in the midwest but its not going to lock in. March right now will probably be biased to warm but its a very changable month and I wouldnt be surprised if we are tracking one more event. I will look at March more closely over the weekend.

Here are some of the snow totals from the storm last week. We were oh so close to getting a 2 foot snowstorm. Had their not been a warm layer at 5000 feet, we would of had a historical snowfall.

Stratford, NY: 42.0"
Saint Johnsville, NY: 40.1"
Minerva, NY: 38.0"
Cambridge, VT: 36.0"
Stratford, NY: 42.0"
Cambridge, VT: 36.0"
Eustis, ME: 29.8"
Gorham, NH: 28.0"
Pepper Pike, OH: 23.5"
East Benton, PA: 23.0"*
Savoy, MA: 19.0"
Grant, IN: 16.0"
Sangamon, IL: 15.8"
Bronson, MI: 9.3"
High Point State, NJ: 7.8"
Shubert, NE: 7.3"
Bunker Hill & Martinsburg, WV: 7.0"
Eckhart Mines, MD: 7.8"
Tolland, CT: 5.2"
Winchester & Stephens City, VA: 5.0"
Burrillville, RI: 4.0"
Washington, DC: 3.0"
Bear & Wilmington Airport, DE: 2.8"*
Milford, PA: 32.0"
Waterbury, VT: 25.0"
Lisbon, NH: 21.0"
Garland, ME: 16.5"
Sidney, OH: 15.0"
Byrnedale, PA: 14.0"
Greenville, OH: 14.0"
Lambertville, MI: 10.5
North Andover, MA: 8.0"
Mount Airy, MD: 6.0"
Stephens City, VA: 5.3"
Newark, DE: 3.0"

Final call on the storm. Another snow bust...

Okay...

the latest data is trending to more ice and less snow. I think snow will be about an inch for Dulles, a dusting in DC and 2-4 inches N and W of Dulles Airport. Ice will be a big problem pretty much everywhere but I think DC and the close suburbs now do turn to some rain for a while. I said a few days ago that Hagerstown will be the bullseye. Well, they will be for ICE. Severe ice damage up in that area. Fredrick too will be in trouble as will Loudoun County and Montgomery County. So if you about 20-30 miles N and W of DC, i think we stay mainly ice and there could be a significant ice accumulation which I described yesterday. For the interior of the Northeast, a very healthy snow dump especialy in places like State College and interior NY. Boston should see about 10 plus inches but even they too will mix with sleet and rain for a while. The problem with this storm was the Arctic High pressure did not move to Southern Canada as was forecasted earlier. That allowed the storm to come further north and bring warm air into the picture. The high pressure is still centered in Central Canada and it can only do so much from there. That is why we are still getting ice and not just rain. This will be a very powerful storm that will cause lots of problems. This should of been a major snowstorm for all the east coast but in this winter...its not meant to snow. There is one last chance for Presidents day Weekeend but after that, we get a pretty impressive warm up and winter will be nearly over. Presidents Day weekend will probably be our last chance for snow this year.

If there are any miraculous changes...i will update again but Ice will be the main form of precipitation from this Massive Winter Storm that had so much potential just a few days ago.

Big Changes...Big Problems as Dangerous Winter Storm Approaches

Alot of you are not going to like this forecast but the modeling has trended to a solution where we start as snow and probably get a good 3-7 inches in the DC metro area(More N and W). But then as the powerful low gets near us, it brings alot of warm air over the cold air and we change to rain. Right? Not so fast. Very cold tempretures will be trapped at the surface and with warm air over the cold, we are looking at a potentially very severe icing situation especially in the N/W Suburbs. I dont expect temps to go above freezing at all during the storm and as a matter of fact, it should be in the 20's all day on Tuesday. But 20's dosent mean it has to snow if there is warm air aloft.

Another problem is winds and the brutal cold air coming behind the system combined with the snow and the ice could lead to major power outages,downed trees and severe travel problems. If the snow changes to sleet...it would be better than freezing rain. So this is my call right now. For those on this newsletter that live in the northeast, it looks like the interior will get pounded with snow while the I95 is similar to what we see here in DC. I would check with your local forecasters as they will have a better handle on the situation especially in Boston where there is a very close call between a blizzard and snow to rain.

How do we get out of this ice situation? You pray the the models start a southward trend for the next 24 hours and keep the low pressure system south and east of us. If that happens, its an all snow event and a very significant accumulation. But right now..no models support this but the way they have been flipping the past 3 days, it wouldnt shock me to see it go back to this solution. If there are any major changes tonight, ill update you. If not, I will make a noon update.

My First call on Winter storm.......

Has been cancelled till till tomorrow afternoon. There is too much model chaos to make a reasonable call right now.

This is what we do know

1) Major East Coast Winter Storm
2) Low pressure will develop in the southern plains and head NE

Where the models dont agree is how far the low pressure heads northeast before hitting a brick wall thanks to a monster high pressure block in Canada. The snowy models have the low heading up to Kentucky and then redeveloping at the NC/SC coast. Once the low hits the coast, it would bomb and ride up goes up the coast and nails us with an incredible snowstorm and probably shut down DC to Boston for a few days.

However some a few other models have the low going further north up into Ohio before hitting the wall and then redeveloping near the Va Capes. This would be a disaster for snow lovers as it would bring too much warm air up from the south and kill the cold air in place. I dont buy this solution but it is on the table.

A third solution would be a compromise of the first 2 scenarios and would give us heavy snow that would turn to sleet as the low heads to SW virginia before redeveloping. This would give us 4-8 inches and then alot of sleet. Right now, the third solution is what I would lean too but the latest run of the American Weather model which many TV forecasters use as their Bible, leans towards scenario 1 which would give us a prolific snowfall.

Tomorrow should clear things up better and Im hoping by 2pm Sunday, I can issue a forecast instead of all this speculation.

This storm is going to clobber somebody...I just dont know who yet?

Update Later tonight

the data is still widespread. We are on the edge of a historical snowstorm or a snow to rain event depending on the movement of low pressure and the location of High Pressure. Some models give us 2 feet...some give us 4-6 inches and then sleet. I need to look at more data. Again, the potential is there for a crippling event but there is still much to be resolved.

Here is a snowfall map from the GFS(The American Model)

Winter Storm Update

Severe Winter storm possible for early next week. The models have still not come to a full consensus yet but the potential is there for a crippling blizzard for the Mid Atlantic and possibley the Northeast. Some models print out some outrageous snow totals. With that being said, I will not make my offical forecast till Saturday night because I need to see more data specifically how the models handle the High Pressure in Canada which will be the key for the storm. The Southern Stream energy is plentiful and supply abundant moisture. Whoever stays all snow from this storm will have the potential to score 18-24 inches plus. Ill have a better idea on Saturday night. Check the blog for more updates.

After the storm, another brutal cold air shot and with snowcover on the ground, its possible that you may wake up later next week and go to your car with temps below zero.
Remember when this winter was considered warm?

Winter Storm Next week Nearly a Lock

I think there is a 95% chance that we see a significant Winter storm Next week. The question remains...the track..the amount of cold air available and the amount of snow that will fall. The models have some differences in them that could either mean all snow or a snow to a mix. Its all dependant on the location of the high pressure in Canada. Yesterday, I was pretty confident that there would be enough high pressure in Southern Canada to give us all snow.. but today some of the models say otherwise and that we would run the riskof heavy snow to mix. One thing Im pretty certain off is that this wont be a historical storm that drops 1-2 feet. I was a bit too ambituous yesterday. I still strongly believe that this has the potential to give the DC area nearly a foot of snow. But with the storm 3-4 days out now...and models in chaos...there is still alot than can go right....or go wrong. But bottom line is, i think we will see a major winter storm in the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Possibly New England early next week. If i had to pick the place for bullseye, I would right now say Hagerstown area.

After the storm, another severe cold blast and then we look at the possibility of a even bigger storm around Presidents Day Weekend which is historically a time where special storms are brewed due to the changing seasons and gradient of cold air and warm air. Stay tuned. A very stormy and cold period coming up!

Severe Winter Storm possible early next week

Well, the clipper that could....did...and we got 1-3 inches I called for. The Cold Wave is probably the most talked about story in the news right now besides the nutty Nasa Astronaut. Next week, Snow could steal the headlines. So lets get on with it.

There is the potential next week for a Winter Storm to drop historic amounts of snow on us early next week. Amounts could be in the 10-15 inch range in what could be a paralyzing snowstorm for the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. The model support is high. Now with that being said...its still 6 days out and plenty can go wrong. The main fear I have of not getting the storm is that the storm track currently modeled changes and gets suppressed due to the push of the arctic high being so strong that it keeps the main bulk of precip to the south. I am not really worried about cold air not being in place as the models shows a Classic High pressure in Southern Canada that will supply us with fresh cold air as the storm cranks. The arctic high pressure is essential and is present in almost 95% of all memorable snowstorms. The subtropical Jet stream should provide plenty of moisture as it attacks the cold air.

Right now, the models have the DC metro area being the bulls eye which is very scary 6 days out. So again, this is a major threat right now but again...you have no idea how much has to come together to get a storm like Im describing. There could be additional winter storms in the next 10 days but we will worry about that later. Right now, if your north of Allentown up to New England, there is doubt about how far north the snow can go.

If things pan out, this could be called the Valentines Day Blizzard of 2007

clipper tonight---Major Storm Early next week??

clipper is on track to come through the area tonight. The heaviest band of snow will be SW of DC. I expect about 1-2 inches for IAD and DCA with less amounts north of DC and about 2-4 south and west of DC. Not much moisture but with the temps being so cold, every flake will stick immediately.


Finally, the modeling is more than hinting at a major and possibly severe Winter Storm next week. All the ingerdients that were missing from the storm last week will be in place early next week but alot of things have to come together to make this a memorable storm. The potential is high but right now its just a threat. The system would affect us Feb 12-14. I can see it now...The Valentine's Day Blizzard!. Way to early to worry about it now but the pattern is going to be changing to a stormier but not as cold regime. But dont break out the shorts just quite yet...it will still be cold but nothing like today's ridiculousness.

The little Clipper that Could?

Usually to get 10 inches of snow, you need an inch of water to fall. Typically its a 10-1 ratio. But when its abnormally cold at the surface and in the upper levels, you can get 20 or 25:1 ratios. Who cares right? Well, You may care come Tuesday night as a Clipper from Canada is modeled to actually surive its trip across south and across the mountains and give us up to .2 of water. With the extreme cold in place, we could see a 1-4 inch snowfall Tuesday night from a moisture starved clipper from Canada.. These clippers are very hard to forecast and most usually die over the mountains but this one may have enough umph with it to give us a powdery snowfall that we may have to shovel. Ill update this later today or tommorow.

Now...we do have the real cold air in place and it wont be till late this week till we go above freezing. As I mentioned a few days ago, we are in a dry pattern and we need to reshuffle the deck and I believe that will occur this weekend as the cold air relaxes some and energy starts to head east via the southern jet stream. The big question is...how much cold air will be around for stormy period. You see, if your going to get a big storm...there has to be warm air somewhere around so there is a risk of an improper track giving us rain next week.. All I will say now is that in about 8 days, there could be a Massive Winter storm with lots of moisture. The question will be and I cant answer now is.will there be enough cold air left to give us a Major Snowfall or do we keep seeing the unlucky syncronizaztion of too dry when cold and too warm when its wet..

Chance of some snow later today. Siberian Express gets here early next week

Well, the storm that I had been talking about for over a week turned out to be a bust. A termendous amount of snow and rain fell to our south but was pushed out to sea before it had a chance to affect our area.

Anyway--an upper level disturbance which was suppose to combine with our storm is going to pass thorugh later today and there is a chance that we could see a dusting to an inch or two especially if your in Maryland tonight. So dont be surprised if you see a sudden snow burst. The more north you are the bettter your chance is.

Next week looks brutal as far as cold. Ive beat the drum enough about this. Daytime highs in the upper teens to low 20's and night time temps between 0-10 will be common for next week.

After that....the cold air will relax some and we reshuffle the deck to a new pattern that will be warmer(but still cold) and wetter as storms start to cross from west to east. This could potentially set us up for a big storm in about 8-10 days.

This is a very hard pattern to get snowstorms from despite the extreme cold that is coming. We need to change this pattern and now modeling shows it may happen in about a week.

SlopStorm tonight....SuperStorm Next Weekend?

Look,

I was never really impressed with this storm and am even less impressed now. When you dont have high pressure in Southern Canada which 1) holds the cold air in 2) Slows the storm down 3) helps the storm to explode due to the gradient between high pressure and low pressure, you dont get a big east snowstorm generally. Still think low pressure will come up from the gulf of mexico but because it moves so fast will have limited moisture to work with. Also the cold air is stale as I mentioned a few days ago. So this is going to be a slop storm with snow,sleet,freezing rain. I dont think anyone will get more than 1-2 inches from this. Most of this stuff will fall overnight so it could hamper rush hour tomorrow but i cant see any delays or cancellations. Sorry people. This isnt the one.

Now, this time next week....we could be looking at a massive winter storm as the pattern changes some and allows the bitter cold which will be in place early next week to relax. We could have a potent southern stream attacking alot of cold air. I really think this has potential to be a monster.

After the slop storm...expect really cold conditions for the start of next week with temps in the single digits in the morning when you wake up to go to work for a few days.