Big Changes...Big Problems as Dangerous Winter Storm Approaches

Alot of you are not going to like this forecast but the modeling has trended to a solution where we start as snow and probably get a good 3-7 inches in the DC metro area(More N and W). But then as the powerful low gets near us, it brings alot of warm air over the cold air and we change to rain. Right? Not so fast. Very cold tempretures will be trapped at the surface and with warm air over the cold, we are looking at a potentially very severe icing situation especially in the N/W Suburbs. I dont expect temps to go above freezing at all during the storm and as a matter of fact, it should be in the 20's all day on Tuesday. But 20's dosent mean it has to snow if there is warm air aloft.

Another problem is winds and the brutal cold air coming behind the system combined with the snow and the ice could lead to major power outages,downed trees and severe travel problems. If the snow changes to sleet...it would be better than freezing rain. So this is my call right now. For those on this newsletter that live in the northeast, it looks like the interior will get pounded with snow while the I95 is similar to what we see here in DC. I would check with your local forecasters as they will have a better handle on the situation especially in Boston where there is a very close call between a blizzard and snow to rain.

How do we get out of this ice situation? You pray the the models start a southward trend for the next 24 hours and keep the low pressure system south and east of us. If that happens, its an all snow event and a very significant accumulation. But right now..no models support this but the way they have been flipping the past 3 days, it wouldnt shock me to see it go back to this solution. If there are any major changes tonight, ill update you. If not, I will make a noon update.