Click Here to Loop 0z European run
courtesy of StormVista(www.stormvista.com) and MDA
Back on May 25, I hinted about the possibility of a wettern pattern for early June. The latest run of the 0z European now shows a storm coming out of the gulf and going up the coast which could provide us quite a storm with substantial rain and wind. This is going to be quite a rain event for the drought stricken SE region. This would be for the June 3-4 period. I will keep you posted
I really need to work on my summer forecasting because Ive been consistently 1-3 degrees cooler than the actual forecast numbers. It was a steamy weekend as temps soared to 92 at IAD on Saturday which shattered the record for that day. The high on Sunday was 89 and on Monday was 86 so I did okay there. The rain we got was a joke as IAD had .10 for the entire weekend and National got .30.
There is still no rain in our future for at least another week but i see some changes that could get us into a cooler and wetter pattern as the mean trough appears that it will shift east by the first week of June. But for this week, it looks to be very warm especially mid week and dry.
Here is an interesting feature shown by the European model...a tropical storm nearly hitting the east coast but being pushed out to sea at the last minute. Something to keep an eye on
Well,
Memorial Day weekend is going to feel...well like Memorial Day Weekend. We are going to see an increase in heat and humidity this weekend as temps might soar to as high as the upper 80s. The models are also showing rising dewpoints which means an increase in humidity. Although, there is no substantial soaking rain in the offering, there is a decent chance for thunderstorm action that would give us a break from the humidity.
For Dulles Airport, i suspect highs will reach about 86 on Friday, 87 on Saturday and 88 on Sunday. The best chance for a T-storm will be Saturday afternoon. Right now Memorial Day looks to be cooler than the weekend but plenty cloudy. It will still feel humid
For those of you going to Pa this weekend, the temps will be slightly cooler in the low 80's as a whole
What about a big rainstorm? Well it does appear that we might see a wetter and more tropical pattern starting in early June. Stay Tuned!
First of all, it was an interesting weekend with a bit of rain on Friday and Saturday night but in between we had some really nice weather. As i had foretasted, the rain was not substantial but it did fall Friday was 8 degrees below normal at IAD. Saturday was 2 below and Sunday warmed up nicely to 6 above normal as we hit 82. Its been really dry too as IAD only has .24 inches of Rain for the month!. The normal through today is 2.68 so we are well below normal with no substantial rain still in sight?
How are we looking for Memorial Day Weekend....well a few days ago..i thought the 2nd half would be a bit iffy but now its appearing that the entire weekend will be nice with Sunday being the possible warmest day of the holiday period Especially DC south. So my early forecast is Mostly sunny and pleasant with Sunday now being the warmest day. And Yes...No Rain. At this point
This big storm will not really affect DC much in terms of rain. Clouds and Cool conditions will be the dominant feature of this event as all the good rains will be well North and East of DC especially in New England. We will get some rain but it will be a joke. Maybe .25 to .50 inches if we are lucky.
Early Next week appears like it will start cooler than normal as the storm is slow to move off. Then it will warm up through the first part of the Memorial Day weekend . The 2nd half of the weekend looks iffy right now as it appears that it might cool down a bit with a frontal passage and give us a chance of rain. Still a long ways off but right now it appears Friday is the warm day of the week before it cools down possibly to temps below normal for the 2nd half of the Memorial Day Weekend.
Back on Monday, I mentioned that there would be a coastal storm later in the week that would drop temps below normal for the weekend. I also said it would be too far out to give us any meaningful rain, and I may still be right but the models are bringing the storm closer to the coast which could enhance our precip chances for Saturday. Most of our precip will probably come from the closed Upper Level low but the main storm is probably still too far east to give us the drenching Rain. The Beaches and New England could see quite a bit of rain from the storm but for us...i expect just mostly cloudy,cool and showery.
image courtesy of StormVista and MDA(www.stormvista.com)
Still no substantial rain in sight. The Thunderstorms on Saturday night were a welcome relief, but overall, its been a very dry May and its likely to continue. You can see from the image really how dry its been this month in the East. There is a chance for a thunderstorm or a few showers Wednesday evening but that should really be the only threat for the week. This week will be mostly on the cool side with the only real chance for heat coming tomorrow when we may hit 83-85 or so. A Ocean storm forming well east of us will move slowly up the coast and keep us cool for the Weekend. As a matter of fact, this weekend is going to feel like Late Fall with temps struggling to get out of the 60's. Tommorow, I will try to hone in on the Memorial Day Weekend but I am leaning warm and dry.
Models are now showing a good chance for rain here on Saturday night. Again, this is not a major event but the possibility does exists for showers and maybe a T-storm Saturday evening. It will be a quick mover and probably drop less than half an inch of rain...but its something.
Mothers Day looks really nice and early next week will be a bit cooler than normal with a warmup to above normal by Wednesday or Thursday.
Boring!!! Where's Winter?
Well, it looks like my forecast of desert dry is spot on. While there has been massive flooding in the midwest, we can hardly buy a rain drop. And even though we may get a thunderstorm or some rain showers tonight, its hardly the soaking rain many of us are now looking for. I still dont see a major rain storm in our future but there is a slight chance of a Thunderstorm tonight. NCEP(National Center for Enviromental prediction) has added this great new product that forecasts what the radar may look like in a given time frame. Pretty cool! Watch out Pennsylvania
Amazing Footage from the F-5 that ripped apart the town of Greensburg, Kansas
I am going to have to eat a little crow this morning. I was hyping the possibility of a 90 degree day later in the week but its not looking like its going to happen. This is a good thing actually as the weather will be spectacular. It appears that the highest temp will see in the 4 days will be about 78 degrees. Still see no SUBSTANTIAL Rains in our future
Dont look for any substantial rain for the next 7-10 days as a Ridge is going to dominate our weather especially as we head to next week. In addition to the drying, its going to get pretty warm. Still think we have a shot at near 90 for later next week
APRIL TEMP ANOMALY CHART
Courtesy of MDA EarthStat and Storm Vista
For the 2nd time in 3 months, the DC area finished a month below average in terms of temperature. So after a long string of warm months, we have reversed the trend somewhat in that category. But the cool weather pattern is coming to an end I believe. We will have one last cool shot for a while as we end the first week of May, but then after that....Look out. Some serious SUMMERTIME Heat will be headed our way towards the end of next week. As a matter of fact, Some of the data has a decent possibility of our first 90 degree day towards the end of next week. I dont see any important rains for us in the near future. We could have a shower or something tonight but most of the important rain will end up being a bit south of us. And next week, its really going to get dry as we start warming up. I will make an update if I see any severe weather threat but its not in the offering right now.
The Map below shows an impressive 500mb setup for warmth towards the end of next week with a trough in the west and a ridge in the East
