Its now looking more and more that Easter will feel more like Christmas as one last arctic cold blast will pour cold temps into the Eastern United States starting around April 6. Easter right now looks unusually cold. Will there be a storm also? Stay tuned...some of the long range models hint this.
Well, it looks like the warm day of the week will be tommorow as the models show us hitting the 80 plus degree plateau. I think low 80's tomorrow is a good bet.
It still does appear that we will be getting significantly colder during the first week of April
It looks like March will be ending like a lamb....However,April looks like it will start like a Lion as warmth will dominate this week before yet another semi- wintry pattern hits the east coast for the first week of April. The warm day this week appears to be Wednesday as we hit between 75-80 but with a Greenland block possibly setting up, it appears now that the first week of April will feel like the first week of March. Full update on Monday
Looking at the 10 day European Model makes me wonder if i pulled the trigger to fast on winter being over. I really think the chance of snow is minimal in the Mid Atlantic after April 1 but I did hint a few days ago that something unusual could happen on April 1. The model is now showing a trough over the East that would bring winter back for a bit to the east after pretty warm period starting today. It has other model support too....
I really do think winter is now over for the Mid Atlantic. Sure, there is always a chance of a fluke April storm but the calender says its spring and so will the temperatures starting tomorrow. This should be the last below normal average day for a while as tomorrow afternoon should see us hit near 70.
This weekend will feature mostly cloudy days with temps mostly in the 60's but it should be above average at night. I really don't see any more temps below 32 on the horizon. As far as storms,I really don't see any major storms our future despite the mostly cloudy conditions that will prevail over the weekend. There could be some showers friday afternoon and off and on for most of the weekends but certainly not a washout and nothing like last week's nor easter.
Here is a map of the surface sea temp anomalies and you can see the La Nina starting to take hold...below normal waters off the west coast of South America are indicative of a La Nina would could favor a pretty interesting tropical season.
Ridge in the east with trough in the west should pump up warm air for Thur-Friday
The storm did pretty much what I thought it would do. It was mostly rain initially and then it turned to sleet and then finally snow before ending. I though Eastern Loudoun County(Dulles Airport) would do a little bit better with the snow as it did turn over around 3:00pm and snowed till about 9 but it just didnt accumulate like I thought. Fredrick and Hagerstown were 2 cities that I thought would do pretty well and they ended up doing as well as I forecasted. But i busted a bit too high in the immediate Washington DC area. When I mentioned earlier in the week that we could see a winter storm after temps were up in the 80's...people gave me some really weird remarks. Oh well.
Anyway...the chilly weather will continue for a few more days but a bit of a warmup is in store for Thursday and Friday as temps could soar into the 70's. The Weekend is questionable as a back door cold front could drive temps down a bit with a chance of some soggy weather. I will update the weekend in a few days.
We could have an one last shot of something unusual around April 1
Unfortunately, when the rain turns frozen..it looks like it will be turning to sleet for the majority of the storm. There will be a period of heavy snow especially West and NW of town.
my final call of snow/sleet
Dulles 4-6
DCA 1 inch or less
Mclean 1-3
Fredrick 5-7 inches
Hagerstown 8-12 inches
its going to be an extremely wet storm with alot of rain then sleet and snow. A nasty storm and a shame that its not January.
RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2007
MDZ003>006-501-502-VAZ027-028-030-031-042-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-
160400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.070316T1500Z-070317T0400Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-SHENANDOAH-
FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-
JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-
EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...BAYARD...PETERSBURG...EMORYVILLE...
HARTMANSVILLE...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY
359 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2007
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL USHER
IN DRASTICALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.
AS THE LOW NEARS...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ALL DAY FRIDAY. NEAR FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.
FOR TONIGHT...MIXED RAIN SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
EARLY 7 PM TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS WINTRY
MIX WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT TIMES MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN COULD OCCUR. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET
FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT TIMES MORE SNOW THAN RAIN WILL OCCUR.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST...PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL SNOW DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO THE EXACT AMOUNT AND TYPE OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE WATCH AREA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
I have e never forecasted snow this late in the season and the DC areas has not had a big accumulation of snow this late since March of 1993 but that was from the Super Storm Blizzard of 93. We did have a late snow in march 2003 and it did stick while it was snowing heavy in the morning. Dulles did get 2 inches on March 30 from only .69 qpf and temps were a bit warmer than they will be tomorrow during the height of the storm.
With 2-3 inches of QPF forecasted--here is my official forecast on this very wet and major winter storm for the northeast
DCA 1 inch
Dulles 3-5 inches
BWI 1-2 inches
HGR 4-6 inches
a general 3-5 inches for the NW suburbs---the further east--the more sleet rain mix. I do think DC will see a general period of heavy snow that may have a hard time sticking.
If this storm was occurring a few weeks earlier...i would be thinking a foot or more in the NW areas. We really need to storm to be a bit more east than progged. I like the setup of the high pressure and the fact that fresh cold air will be coming in.
Should be interesting but without much history to look at..this is definitely a wild card storm.
Allentown,PA should do very well!
The new model runs are out and they are trending colder and wetter. It appears now likely that the DC area will see some snow Friday night and Saturday and possibly Heavy snow for a time. Again, the best bets for accumulation are N and W of town but now I can see DCA getting some accumulation too. The temps will be marginal but a heavy wet snow event is certainly within realm. The Northeast from PA to New England look to get pounded.
Ill update the blog often as we see a dramatic turn-around.
Does going from 75-80 today to possibly some moderate snow on Friday night count? The blowtorch that was called for last week is actually more impressive than I thought but that memory will quickly be erased by Friday as cold air pours from Canada thanks to a High Pressure center that is setup beautifully to support Cold Air Damning. While thats happen, a storm will develop and head up the coast and will likely change the rain(the storm will start off as rain) into a period of wet snow. The best bets for any accumulation are N &W of DC and I expect places like Allentown,PA...the suburbs of NYC and Boston to have a significant accumulation of snow. I will post updates on the blog but I wanted to give you heads up that Winter will attack one more time and probably the last time. Next weekend...the Weekend of March 24-25 could be another impressive blowtorch.
by the way...did you hear about the expedition to bring attention to global warming that got canceled due to frost bite?
http://www.startribune.com/462/story/1048709.html
After a very warm stretch coming up in which some areas could see readings between 75-80...winter comes roaring back and it now appears that a cold storm will approach this weekend that starts off as rain and may switch to snow.
Too early to talk about it now but the models are now indicating a very wet event for DC and the Mid Atlantic for this weekend with temps close enough to make things interesting
A week after a 1-2 inch snowfall and temps in the lower 30's....its entirely possible that we could see an 80 degree day on Wednesday now as the models are really showing the heat pumping...
March 14--could break a heat record. I am now forecasting a 75-80 degree day for the DC area
It looks like we will be having one more shot of winter cold this weekend after a very warm stretch of weather this week. Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the best days to call in sick as we should approach and probably exceed the 70 degree mark.. With March being a transition month, it should be no surprise that we can get snow a few days ago...have a mild weekend, hit 70 during midweek and then back to cold for next Weekend. The cold this weekend will be nothing like we had last week and we should be able to handle it with relative ease. I suspect most of next week will average below normal but towards the 22nd or 23rd of March, we should start rebounding again and Winter as we know it will finally come to an end at least in the Mid Atlantic. There could be one last snow threat early next week but I wont touch on that for a few days.
Also, the best chance for any rain this week will come on Friday as we change from a warm air mass to a colder one.
To the people who get my weather emails, I will probably stop sending them out except for instances where really severe weather is immiment. All the information you will need will be on the blog and I would just bookmark the site and check it regularly. It will be updated often. Feel free to pass the link to your friends as the blog will continue to be DC centric but also touch on Mid Atlantic in general especially in terms of long range and pattern changes. Feel free to email me with any questions you have.
The storm yesterday behaved as I thought. There was a general 1-2 inches with Hagerstown being the winner with 4 inches. But as I promised you....Warmer Days are coming. As Ive been alluding for the past few days, the very chilly weather of this first week will be replaced by Mild Weather next week. There could be a day next week...like Wednesday where DC flirts with 70. Right now Next Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the warmest day although early in the week will feel great compared to what we have been through. But alas, the cold will return by the Start of Next weekend. This weekend while mild appears to be cloudy. The real spring weather will begin next week.
Also, something to keep in mind is that there we have gone from a El Nino to a La Nina. La Nina is the opposite of El Nino where the waters in the equatorial Pacific are colder than normal. Who cares right? Well...a La Nina regime favors a very active hurricane season. Last Season, El nino pretty much shut down Hurricanes but this summer might be the opposite.Also, If the La Nina is moderate to strong by the time we head into next winter, we can kiss winter goodbye. Its going to stink. But if it weakens and we have a weak La Nina, the winter will be alot more interesting.
Not a big deal but a general 1-3 inches will be falling during the day tomorrow. I suspect most areas will be in the 2 inch area. For this snowless winter, i guess some people might see this as a decent storm. There could be a period where we see some moderate snow. Temps will remain cold for the rest of the week. I told you this would be a cold week.
by the way...i put a hits counter in early Feb on the blog and this page has 4000 plus hits so somebody besides the email list is reading it lol
What about warm air? Next week should be warm with a few days hitting the mid 60s but I really dont think its going to last. We could start getting cold again in about 10 days after the warm up.
A reinforcing shot of cold air and icy winds will be arriving later this afternoon setting the stage for an abnormally cold stretch for early March. In fact, we may not be above freezing tomorrow and could set a record as there is a chance we stay in the 20's during the day!. Then on Wednesday afternoon, a clipper from Alberta will be heading our way and we could see an inch or two of snow. I will update tomorrow on the potential snow
It will be warmer next week. Trust me
Tomorrow, a cold front comes through in the afternoon and we go back to a colder than normal regime after today's warm day. I still believe the first week of March especially early next week will end up being well below normal. Tuesday looks to be the coldest day of the week with temps in the 30's for DC and 20's in New England during the daytime! Keep in mind that the normal temps now in the Mid Atlantic are between 48-52 so much below normal isnt as cold in March as it is in January. But Starting around March 8, the cold will be forgotten and we will be into a much warmer air mass with a pattern change similar to what we had back in the early winter. The mild should be a dominant player for about 10 days but there is a possibility of going back to one last wintry pattern during the last week 10 days of March.
bottom line: Cold through March 7 and a major warmup after that for at least 10 days. I wont comment on any storms till next week. Enjoy
Big Rain tonight. Heavy with chance of severe T-storms. 1-2 inches of rain for the the Mid Atlantic.
After rain event passes, it does cool down for the weekend and for most of next week but we starting warming up big time by next weekend.
