Folks, if you like snow, your time has come. It appears that the event today is going to outpeform the modeling and even do better than I thought it was capable. A general 3-6 for N and W of DC.
There is one this weekend though that really bears watching. Update later today but one model is giving us an incredible snowstorm. Lets see if the others latch on.
1st chance is tomorrow. A storm from the gulf of mexico will head up the eastern seaboard. However, the cold air in place will not hold so it will start as snow and then turn to mix before ending. I think however enough snow will fall west of I-95 that we could see a light accumulation before the changeover. Temps will stay in the lower 30's and start to rise overnight as the storm center comes closer. Not a big storm but an interesting event.
2nd chance is Saturday night before the really cold air comes in for sunday. A wave is going to develop and skirt the area. Right now, the potential for light snow is there but we will have to watch this for bigger development.
3rd chance is the storm I am most excited about. I believe the cards are there for a significant storm in the Jan 24-25 time period. Stay tuned!
Well, the storm i was tracking did look good for us for a few days but the models were waffling with it so it was hard to make a good forecast. In the end, the storm that was suppose to develop in the Gulf of Mexico ended not organizing till it hit the mid Atlantic Coast meaning that we would be to far south to get the best dynamics of the storm. This storm as usual looks to be a New England Special. Even with the good track, the surface temps were still marginal. In any case, this storm is not ours.
There is another storm for thursday that might be interesting but again any cold air available will be lost as the storm approaches so at the very best, we could start out as snow and quickly change to rain.
The big news is the cold air coming this weekend. It could be the coldest weekend in many years and shatter records. I will pinpoint how cold it could get starting tomorrow but it could be severe.
As far as snowstorms, we will have our chances in the next 2 weeks but nothing i can put a finger on as far as what time period to look for one.
No, I am not pulling the trigger just yet but a storm that I have been tracking for about 10 days is now starting to come into focus. A storm system sunday will develop in the gulf of mexico and work its way up the coast. Models have been really inconsistent in handling the storm so its been really hard to pinpoint whats going to happen. However, I am more confident now that there will be a storm that will head up the coast after developing in the gulf of mexico.
Usually, this is a super track for us but some things are making me wary of pulling the trigger for a snowstorm.
1) No real cold high pressure to our north...there is a weak high pressure though
2) Its been so warm lately that when it does start to cool, the cold air will be marginal at best. There is no arctic air whatsoever
3) Seasonal trends of storms tracking to far N and W
4) Upper features I look for in a snowstorm are not there
so for right now, I am forecasting a winter storm to affect our area. my best guess is that it will be a snowstorm well West and North of DC with a mix in the n and w burbs and mosty rain in DC. I will keep you posted.
More important, i think this will be the start of a pretty exciting 10-15 day period in which cold and stormy conditions could be the rule and not the exception
Its been tough to find time to blog. First of all, the weather has been really boring for the Mid Atlantic..plus with a new kid, i just haven't made it a priority but I really do like doing the weather blog so I am going to try to update it at least 3-4 times a week.
You probably all know that warmth is coming but its not the kind of warmth that will last 30 or so days like we have seen in prior years. There is a chance that it could hit 70 in DCA around Jan 8 or so and its going to be very warm for a period of 3-4 days. But I am already seeing signs of going to a colder pattern in time for mid month so this warm while it may be spectacular dosent appear to have any long lasting bite to it.
As far as snow, well its been a no show since our dec 5 clipper. There have been some threats but the storms have all trended NW and we ended up with a near miss but rain. Dont even think about snow till at least mid month. Maybe by then, we will have another shot
