Nice Weekend but not as Nice as last weekend

There is a good chance of some thunderstorms today but I dont think anything severe. The damp weather that I promised came a day late but we got some decent rain last night and by the time today ends, it will have end up being a an okay rainmaker but nothing like the kind of rain they got further North. This weekend looks nice but nothing like last week as it will be about 10 degrees cooler and alot more breezy. No rain though

Next week(First week of May) will start off a bit warmer than normal but then end cooler than normal as a trough gets established in the East.

Allergy sufferers? Some relief coming

First of all, today might get to near 90. NAM (Model output statistics) shows 86-87 at Dulles Airport so we will be flirting with 90 today although I dont think we will hit it but once again we have managed to go from winter to summer and forgetting spring along the way.

For those of you suffering from allergies, there is some relief on the way as a slow moving disturbance will give us on and off rain towards the middle of the week. Not a huge soaker but enough rain to give you guys relief.

Finally, Im a winter weather guy so don't be surprised if this blog isn't updated as much during the summer time. You can say hazy,hot and humid and take care of 80% of the forecast for the summer. I will post when I see extremes in weather like 1) excessive heat 2) Massive Thunderstorm potential 3) Hurricanes

Possibility that begining of May starts of cooler than normal

Ready for a new pattern

Its over. Winter 06-07 as you know it is going by the wayside. A big warming and drying trend is coming and we will be in a relatively boring weather pattern for the next week or so. Many people wont mind. Right now, if April ended, it would end as one of the coldest of all time. It does appear though that some above average temps are on the way including a chance for a few 80 degree days Sunday and Monday. Enjoy the weekend dont forget to pray for the families/victims of the horrific Tech tragedy.

Give it a week--and the Pattern will start changing

Look, I love winter weather but even I am getting tired of this. I am ready to move on and get over this winter that dosent seem to want to go away. Heavy Rain fell yesterday but as I mentioned a few days ago, the worst of the noreaster was going to spare the DC area and it did. Dosent it always?. Had the track been more to the south and east as the models were suggesting 5-6 days ago, this could of been truly a historic event as the UL would of closed off sooner and more south. The story of this big noreaster was not snow but historic rain totals and damaging wind.

So...whats next?

Its going to take a while for the system to totally leave us as its going to stall and spin its self out. The storm will continue to give us occasional showers and big wind gusts. It will also keep clouds around till midweek.

However, the atmosphere is changing and all the cold air in Canada is being routed out so by this time next week, we could start seeing the beginning of a major pattern change into a warmer-more April like regime.Its just a matter of time

Stormy Weekend but not as potent as models showed earlier

Im still excepting a very stormy weekend but the models have backed somewhat off the historical once in a life time April event that it was advertising a few days ago. Make no Mistake, Sunday will be stormy with heavy rain and wind but the change to heavy snow changes close to the metro area that really opened my eyes is now diminishing. The track of the storm has significicantly changed in the modeling from what I saw on Wednesday with a further north and west track. Its possible that there could be another east shift but it looks like most of the important snow from this system will be at the higher elevations. There could be some decent snow in north of Central Pennsylavania.

I will make another update tomorrow as we get closer. The models are still kind of shifting around. Its still an impressive April event but not the crusher it could of been.

Very Powerful Noreaster Likely on the way

If the GFS model(the American Model) is correct, a very powerful Noreaster will smash the East Coast with Heavy Rain,Snow and Wind. According to the model, this would be one of the strongest storms to hit the east coast since the famous Blizzard of 1993 as its showing a very powerful low pressure center that moves very slowly up the coast(even stalls) and causes an enormous amount of rain and interior snow. This is the predicted snowfall map based on the 12z GFS run and it even gives the Northern Virginia area 2-3 inches of snow after alot of rain.

This storm would start on April 14 and continue through the 16th according to the model and would give us hours of backslash snow. This storm would also cause coastal flooding and beach erosion and dump massive amounts of snow in the mountains of the NorthEast. Something to definitely watch for the end of the weekend into early part of next week. This storm has very strong support from the GFS ensembles and more importantly, the superior European Model.

Stay tuned!

Big Rainstorm on the way

Very interesting weather lately. Its been colder in early April than it was in Early January and the DC area got their first accumulating snow this late in April since the 1920's over the Easter Weekend. Snows canceled many major league baseball games. Not a great weekend for Al Gore and his Global Warning Disciples.

The temps will continue to be below average over the course of the next week or so although there will be some days where we do hit near normal. But for the most part a damp and cool period is in the offering.

The next area of focus is a big storm in the midwest that will start to affect our area tomorrow and likely give us heavy rain overnight Wednesday. Model amounts show up to 1-2 inches. Just north of us in PA and New England, another bout of heavy snow is expected as April continues to feel like Winter in the NorthEast. With blocking in Greeland, We should stay in this pattern for the next 10 or so days.

White Easter possibilites getting serious(snow tonight?)

The new models are now printing out more precipitation that will fall over the area over night than what were showing yesterday. On a normal winter day, this amount of precip shown in the map would be a good 3-6 inches but it is April and the grounds have been warm after 2 weeks of warm weather. The area for the best snow is stil , East and South of DC but as you can see, now Dulles and DCA are clearly in the mix to see some possibly moderate snow. How much sticks is hard to say but a whiting to maybe 2 inches would be a good possibility and possibly a bit more.

So my first call

Dulles 1-3
DCA 1-3
BWI 2-4

Well see

White Easter Weekend Possibility

I havent had a chance to post since Last Friday due being really sick but I wanted to give you guys heads up that a very cold arctic air mass will continue pouring cold air into the eastern Us for the next week or so. Easter will feel more like Christmas usually feels and will probably end up being colder than the past Christmas Holiday. Go Figure

As a matter of fact, there will be several chances of snow in this period but I will focus on the one for tomorrow night into Saturday.

Temps will be plenty cold enough at the upper levels and at the surface for snow to fall as a disturbance approaches from our west. Right now it appears the best chance for moderate snow will be EAST and South of DC where there could be a dusting to maybe half an inch. The more east you head---even towards the beaches is where the best chances of heavier snow will fall. But its April so i don't expect anyone to see more than inch.

You can see in the map that the temps at 5000 feet are -10, which is plenty cold for it to generate snow.






Easter should be sunny but cold(40's)

and then there is another possible storm to watch early-mid week with cold air still in place

Winter just dont want to go away lol