the new GFS is very bullish on a slow moving rain event that would give us quite a bit of rain over the course of 4 days.
Here would be the total rain amount if it verified through August 2nd. It would make a huge dent into our drought
If this were to happen and its looking like a decent chance, the majority would fall early next week with it starting late in the weekend. I will keep you updated
its really amazing how the rain keeps dodging us especially in eastern Loudoun County but there are signs that a stalled out front could bring us some substantial rain for the weekend. The Latest gfs runs wants to give us about 2-2.5 inches of rain over the next 5 days with most if falling off and on during the weekend. As we get closer to the potential event, i will keep you updated. However, this is far from a sure lock because we are in a drought and the rain has been finding a way to miss us.
As far as temps go, we havent hit our normal high for about 5 days and although it will get somewhat warmer, im still not impressed with the chances of any real heat wave for at least the next week although we could hit the low 90's thursday and Friday.
Hurricanes? Nope...nothing in sight.
The heat is going away for a few days and will be replaced by some nice fresh cool weather from Canada. Highs well below average and cool at night. Its going to feel like early fall rather than middle of Summer.
By this time next week, the heat should be returning and there is "talk" of a big Heat Wave. Well see...im not impressed yet from what the models are showing.
rain? Forgetaboutit. Drought City Baby! In all seriousness, we could see something early next week but Im not putting my hopes in it. Not yet.
well, the storm that appeared to maybe give us a chance for some rain this weekend is heading way north of us so we will be lucky to get a few drops. The good thing is the temps will be much cooler this weekend and into the early part of next week. By Wed, we should start to see another warmup.
Once your in a drought...its really hard to get it to rain.
It looks like another mostly dry period with most of the heat occuring in the 1st part. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day as we could hit 95. There is a chance for Thunderstorms pretty much everyday this week but as usual, they will be hit and miss.
The big change could come as we head towards friday with the possibility of some stormy weather and cooler temps. I will update later after the 12z model runs.
My old friend, the European model let me down as it took away the storm that it had for us for tomorrow. From my last Monday post, it had a pretty potent storm developing in the Gulf and coming up the coast but unfortunately, thats not going to happen and i should of waited to see at least one more run before mentioning the possibility.
There is a chance of showers and storms tonight and the weekend will be pleaseant(So there is some relief coming) before the next round of heat arrive early next week. The European does have a little wave to the south of us on Friday that could give us some rain so ill check on that in more detail.
Weekend looks pretty nice!
STORM POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY
Searing Heat for the next few days as highs will most likely hit near the 100 mark today and Tuesday. I expect to flirt with and reach 100 degrees both days.
But there is relief in sight....a stormier pattern may be in the offering and we could see a couple of storms towards the end of the week that might give us some much needed rain and temperature relief.
In fact, the latest run of the European has nice storm developing in the Gulf States and heading up the Eastern Seaboard for Thursday and Friday. That could give us the rainy day we have all been looking for. Behind that is another possible storm developing down south that could give us another event during the last part of the weekend. But thats 7 days away. Our best chance appears to be Thursday and Friday.
On Wednesday, we will start seeing temp relief as temps will drop back into a more tolerable range. Stay tuned for updates on the storm!
Been on Vacation but Im back now. I will update soon but it looks like next week is going to be sickly hot.
Today could be one of the best days weve had in terms of severe weather. Im certainly not an expert on predicting Severe Weather so this is what the NWS in sterling has to say about it
345
fxus61 klwx 281419
afdlwx
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
1019 am EDT Thursday Jun 28 2007
Synopsis...
high pressure centered off the South Carolina coast will
drift east. A cold front over Michigan will approach the area this
evening allowing more widespread thunderstorm activity to occur.
Showers and thunderstorms will track across the area early Friday
with the passage of the cold front. Cool high pressure will build in
from the Midwest over the weekend and early next week providing the
area with a cooler and less humid airmass.
&&
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
latest radar loop showing convection well west of area but moving
east at a good clip. Wind fields much better
today...unidirectional...0-6km storm motion around 300 degrees at
16kts. Multi-cell storms with damaging winds still looks good for
this afternoon/evening. Freezing levels still quite high...14.8kft.
Mixed layer cape around 1550 and sref forecasting a high probability of
2000+ j/kg favoring our southern and eastern zones late this
afternoon.
Temperatures will be 2-4 degrees cooler than yesterday highs.
Although urban areas may still get close to the 100 degree heat
index.
&&
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/...
if severe storms do develop..blv these would be ongoing around 7 PM
and continue through the evening hours. West/ as much
Theta-E as will be available doubt sunset will
have much effect on the atmosphere ahead of the fnt...so active cnvctn
possible into central Maryland/lower southern Maryland well into evening.
As night progresses blv convective chances lessen near Mason-Dixon
...and have changed precipitation type to
just rain shower across the north.
Unlike prvs two days there will be some wind aloft tda/tngt.
Heavy rain is certainly possible west/ any storms
..but the possiblity of flsh fldg is
lessened as these shouldn't be near-stationary.
Even west/ fnt moving through region still
xpctg a warm overnight - m70s inner cities...l60s far west.
&&
The Peak of the Heat is today as temps should soar into the low to mid 90's. Believe it or not, New England has a better chance of upper 90's than we do as high humidity and partly cloudy skies will prevent us from hitting 100.
Anyway..big changes come tomorrow as a cold front passes. The cold front should trigger showers and Thunderstorms which will end up being our last chance of rain for about a week or so. It will also kill the mini heat wave. We could get some substantial rain out of it(But i also thought we could get some in the past 2 days and that didnt happen.)
The big story will be once the cold front passes, a trough will setup in the east and this is a pretty deep trough. If it was winter, I would be really excited but the bottom line is the trough will keep things cool for this weekend and next week. We will see a gradual increase in heat next week but nothing we cant handle. Worst case scenario is that the temps will normal towards the end of next week. This weekend will be spectacular with some of the most comfortable late June Weather you will ever experience.
Here is the European Model 500mb map for early next week. Notice the big trough in the east and the ridge in the central United States. Perfect scenario for comfortable temps in the middle of summer. Enjoy
Well I spent all this time Friday talking about a possible 100 degree day next week...but its not happening. After further looking at the modeling this morning, it appears that there will be too much cloud cover for us to reach 100. The conditions wont be as ripe as I thought. The hot Day of the week still looks it will be Wednesday but 93 is probably the Max we will hit. So cancel the hype...i guess i just overreacted. There is also going to be a good chance for Thunderstoms this week as we might get a decent amount of activity. No day will be a washout but afternoon T-storms are very possible with some being severe in Nature.
It does look like next week and heading into July 4 will be spectacular especially July 1-2! Usually July 4 is a steaming hot but it looks like we will have incredibly comfortable weather. More on that later.
I like to try to focus the forecast generally a week out from the given date so for this post, I would like to talk about next week. Next week is going to be hot...probably the hottest weather we have had all season. As we head towards July, if the temperature at 5000 feet above sea level is 20 degrees for example, and its Sunny(Not overcast) and its July or Late June, you can add 15 additional degrees to that and forecast your temp on the surface. For Example, The 00z European model run has for next Wednesday at 7pm 850mb(5000 feet) temps at about 20.2. Since its Late June, if you tack on 15 to the 20.2..you get 35.2. 35.2 C at 7pm is 95 degrees. At 7pm! So what is it going to be at 3pm? Well the shorter term more high resolution models can break it down by the hour but I'm guessing Next Wednesday, We will see temps near 100 degrees. Here is a chart courtesy of (www.wxrisk.com) that gives a good general rule of thumb of how to use the 850mb temps to make your forecast.
So next week, its going to be hot again for probably Tuesday,Wed and Thur before it cools down again. I dont see much rain in the next couple of days but in the summer, there is always a chance for a late day shower or TStorm
My last blog entry said that we would be in the 90's for the first part of the week and indeed we were. Yesterday, IAD soared to 95. Today, not so much. We will be in the 80's for the rest of the week during the day time giving us some relief from the intense heat. However, looking at modeling, we could be seeing another big blast of heat at this time next week. Rain? I hoped you enjoyed whatever we had yesterday....were done for a while.
Well, the heat is here and after looking more into the modeling, it dosent appear to be going away anytime soon. There might be a slight reprieve during the weekend but thats iffy too and Ill look at that closer during the week. Highs generally in the 90's especially for the first part of this week. The only really chance of rain i see are Tstorm possibilities on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Still nothing going on in the tropics of any interest for all you Cane Fans.
Interesting week so far...we have gotten a bit more rain than I thought especially with the late day boomers of Tuesday night and Wednesday. We should be done with the rain as we now prepare to tackle some heat after a couple more days of below average temps Starting sunday, the AC's will be in full operation as the first 3-4 days of next week looks hot with highs in the low to mid 90's. I dont think it will be a long heat stretch as we could get back to cooler towards NEXT weekend.
Looks like a trough in the eastern United States will keep the areas East of the Apps slightly cooler than normal this week. There will be a chance for some showers early this week but nothing really substantial. By Next Monday, we could be looking at another short lived Heat Wave but after that..it looks like a more substantial trough could set in and keep us cooler than normal for through mid June
Ive been hyping this heat now for about a week that is due to set us ablaze. I did say the hot day would be Saturday but I was misreading the dates on the models. Its actually tomorrow.
Here are my forecast highs for Friday for the East Coast
Dulles 99
Washington Reagan 98
Philadelphia 95
Boston 69 lol(this wont affect boston..this is a Mid Atlantic Special). Somebody in the DC/VA/MD/PA region will hit 100.
After Friday, we do cool down a bit for the weekend and next week looks dry and warm but nothing outrageous like its going to be tomorrow. Saturday should be about 15 degrees cooler than Friday as a whole.
No substantial rainstorm in sight
Bad News: Its going to be really hot Friday and Especially Saturday.
Good News: It will cool down considerably starting on Sunday for a few days
Click to Loop Euro Model Temps
Watch how the severe heat just comes and goes
Well,
I nailed the forecast. The storm I was hinting about right before Memorial day Weekend came to fruition and we got a much needed all day rain event.
So whats next? Severe Heat for a day or two. It appears that my call from last week about severe heat this coming weekend has some legs now. The European model shows some blistering heat for our area for the weekend including a day(saturday) where the temps might hit the mid to upper 90's.
As far as any substantial rain this week? Not a chance. One good thing is that today through Wednesday should be nice and seasonable with low humidity. Enjoy it while you can cause some old school summer roasting is on the way
