Ji's official 2006-2007 Winter Forecast-From Sept 19

I feel pretty confident about this forecast so I am issuing it early. Last year I went for a pretty ho hum winter and that’s pretty much what we got except it was warmer than I thought because of record breaking warm January. This year, I predict winter returns in a big way

This is clearly going to be a weak to moderate El Niño winter. El Nino is based on the Pacific temperatures in the region that I have highlighted in the map below. The map basically shows if the ocean temps are normal, below or above normal. For us to have an El Nino we need temps to be warmer than normal in the region I have highlighted in red square which it clearly is right now. Also look at the warmer than normal temps in the Gulf of Mexico. This is a good indicator for storms brewing in the winter. Storms love warm water. If a hurricane came into the Gulf right now, it would be ripe to become another Katrina based on the Gulf of Mexico temps




On the flip side, last year we had a La Nina Winter as temps in the same region were much colder than usual. Usually La Nina means a drier and warmer pattern for the Northeast/Mid Atlantic and snowier for the west coast which is pretty much what happened last year as January soared to record highs

But this year is an El Nino Winter. DC and the northeast seems to cherish these kind of winters as they seem to be the snowiest. We have had some very snowy winters during el Niño seasons like 1986-1987, 1977-78,1976-1977,2002-2003, 1965-1966,1963-1964,1957-1958. These were considered weak to moderate El Nino’s

Other El Niño winters in 1987-1988, 1969-1970,1968-1969.. They also featured above normal snowfall although those winters were not as severe as the ones I listed above. When I say good or outstanding winter, I mean snowy and cold. Other people have different views of what a good or outstanding winter is:)

We have also had some El Niño winters that were very warm like 1994-1995 and 1991-1992 and 1997-1998. Those were very strong El Nino’s in which the temps in that region which I have higlighted in the graphics were way above average. Strong El Nino’s are known for very stormy and very warm winters. El Nino’s are a whole are known to be stormier than normal. 1997-1998 was the strongest El Nino ever recorded! DC and Philadelphia combined got less than an inch of snow but it was plenty stormy.

But its not a coincidence that most el Niño winters for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast make winter lovers happy. There have only been a few that have been warm so I am playing the odds with this forecast.

I am also taking into consideration the recent warm spell of the past year or so and how we have struggled to be below normal at all for any month. I also realize how fast you can go from a warm winter to a cold winter ala 2001-2002 which was a La Nina and very warm to 2002-2003 which was an El Nino and very snowy.

With that being said....here we go

December Normal temps. December will most likely start warm and by Dec 15-20 turn cold and stormy
January -2.5 below normal. Cold, Snowy January
February -1.5 below normal
March +1.0

Snowfall for DCA: 20-23 inches. BWI 25-30 For IAD: 30-35 inches. Boston,Philly and NYC should all get snow 5-10 inches above normal. The N and W suburbs have a banner year and this year feels like a classic again. This will not be a repeat of 02-03 but it’s going to be a really good winter! And of course, one blizzard cly stand out. Enjoy your last days of Summer