Our Winter may have a pulse
Boulder, Colorado a few hours ago...Remember what snow looks like?
We are currently in a very stable pattern where the same things keep happening over and over. Denver is getting another blizzard right now and we are above average warm with another rain event on the way for New Years Eve and New Years. This is the rinse and repeat pattern and there is going to have to be a serious jolt to change it.
Well..some of the modeling is showing signs of the jolt occurring and its a pretty strong signal but not overwhelming yet. So right now my forecast is for the pattern to start changing in about a week and we still start to see the effects between Jan 10 and 15. It is possible that between January 15 and February, we could see some harsh stretches of winter based on climatology related to weakening El Nino and the modeling. If you remember February 2003, the DC area had about 35 total inches from 3 storms so its possible to get alot of winter in a short amount of time. So yes...i am seeing signs of a pattern change but Id like to see a few more days of data before I fully commit.
And make no mistake, we will blowtorch before the pattern changes. Temps the first 10 days of January will be WELL above normal.
For those of you that forgot what snow looks like...here is another picture from the current Storm in Boulder,Colorado
26 comments:
Hey,
Do you know David Tolleris? He lives in Ashburn, VA as well. What's with all the WX forecasters in Ashburn?
Anyhow, where did you download the image with the 500 mb geopotential heights for both GFS and ECMWF that you posted: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=118630
Thanks,
Gene
I got the the PSU-ewall site and I right click on the image using Firefox and grab the gif url and paste it.
The link is
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
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