The Cold is Coming. But will it snow?
The cold is coming. I’ve beaten the band to death about the arriving cold. After one last warm weekend and rain, an arctic front will push through by Jan 15th and we will be in a new world of shivers and shakes. But will it snow? Well, with the arrival of cold air, our chances go up dramatically but I haven’t seen anything in the modeling that’s getting me overly excited. Ive already promised some people snow late next week so the pressure is on to deliver. The active southern jet stream will provide opportunities but so far all the modeling is showing the threats suppressed(South of us) or out to sea. This is a pretty good pattern for delivering numbing cold but I like to see the Greenland Block(High pressure over Greenland) to get excited about snowstorms that can shut down cities.
There will be numerous threats in the next 10 days but no locks yet. But the first step is getting the cold and its certainly coming and it looks like it will be prolonged.
Notes: It appears that the 2nd half of the weekend will be cloudy and rainy. There will be a very intense boundary between the cold air to our north and the warmer air that will be over us. So if your driving from DC North to New England…there could be some ice snow up there while we are warm and rainy. And Just for fun, the model does show a near blizzard for the East Coast on January 20 but I don’t buy it right now.
19 comments:
I grew up in the '70s and it seems like we had much more impressive winter weather back then. January 1977 was our coldest Jan in 35 years with more than double the average snowfall. We also had impressive snows in the winter of 77-78, particularly in late Jan and Feb, and of course the winter of 1978-79 was record breaking. We had over 30 inches of snow in back-to-back storms that year, including a surprise storm that shut down the city on Lincoln's Birthday and a blizzard a week later.
By contrast, this decade has been a big fizzle. Except for a storm in Jan. 2000, and the blizzard of 2003, we've had almost nothing all decade!
What is fundamentally different about the weather and climate patterns of the last 10 years compared to the 1970s and 80s? Why did we get snow more consistently then, and not now?
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